Documents / Analysis
Special Report No. 14 was issued by the U.S. Air Force's Air Technical Intelligence Center on 5 May 1955. It is a statistical study of about 4,000 reports of unidentified aerial objects from June 1947 to December 1952. The reports were reduced to IBM punched cards and analyzed with methods including chi square tests. The report concludes that the reports it examined are very unlikely to represent technology beyond present scientific knowledge, and it notes that no case produced valid physical evidence.
Coding System, and Work Sheet The reduction of non-numerical data to numerical form is mandatory in the machine handling of data. Thus, the selection of the IBM punched- card system for analysis of data forced the adoption ~>f a master coding plan. Since it was impracticable to transfer detailed data of an exact nature from the questionnaire to the IBM card, an intermediate transfer form, coordinated with the master code, was necessary. The master coding plan was evolved during the early stages of the preliminary analysis of data, and was reviewed by the panel of consultants before use. It was recognized that this system of coding would be the heart of the analysis, that is, the completeness of the facility for trans- lation of data could make or break the study. Accordingly, eyery con.ce.iv- able factor that might influence the identification of unidentified aerial objectswas_ included, together with a wide range of variations within each facjtor. The original coding system (with minor corrections) was used throughout the translation of the original data with marked success. A copy of this system, called CODES, is enclosed as Exhibit B4, Appendix B. To facilitate the preparation of the punched-card abstract, an inter- mediate form called the WORK SHEET (later, the CARD BIBLE) was developed. Referenced to both the data from the questionnaire and the sys- tem of report identification, the WORK SHEET permitted an orderly transcription of data simultaneously by several people. In conjunction with the CODES, the WORK SHEET was used during the reduction of the original data to code form necessary for transfer to punched cards. A sample is included as Exhibit B5, Appendix B. After the analysis was under way, it became apparent that the me- chanics of machine processing could be improved by incorporating in the IBM card system group classifications of certain factors requiring more than one column for discrete expression. In addition, the inclusion of certain data relating to the evaluation and bearing of the sun with respect to the observer was considered necessary. Finally, a critical examination of certain segments of the data indicated the need for the definition of a new factor relating to the maneuvers of the object or objects sighted. Prior to the start of the analytical study, it had been assumed that a com- bination 6f stated factors would, by inference, define the maneuver pattern. All these additions have been incorporated in a revised set of CODES and CARD BIBLE that are illustrated as Exhibits B6 and B7, Appendix B. However, at the time that the maneuver factor was determined to be criti- cal, it was physically impracticable to make the required definitions and re-evaluate the original data. Therefore, no code for maneuverability has been included in the CODES, CARD BIBLE, or IBM cards.
Analysis, from the classic collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 309 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.