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Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14: Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects

United States Air Force, Air Technical Intelligence Center · 1955-05-05 · 309 pages · text from the file's own layer

Special Report No. 14 was issued by the U.S. Air Force's Air Technical Intelligence Center on 5 May 1955. It is a statistical study of about 4,000 reports of unidentified aerial objects from June 1947 to December 1952. The reports were reduced to IBM punched cards and analyzed with methods including chi square tests. The report concludes that the reports it examined are very unlikely to represent technology beyond present scientific knowledge, and it notes that no case produced valid physical evidence.

/v
Identification of Working Papers
The actualjreduction of d.ata to IBM jaujijchedj^c_a.rd form presented a
problem of mass transfer of figures by several workers. Recognizing that
an orderly system of relating the original data to the questionnaire, the
WORK SHEET, and the IBM card was imperative, a scheme of SERIAL
NUMBERS was developed to answer this need.
The first data consisted of a series of letter-file folders identified by
the year and location of the sighting or sightings they contained. The num-
ber of reports of sightings in a single folder varied from 1 to over 20.
Under these conditions, there was a great possibility for incorrect tran-
scription of data, duplication of transcription, or misplacement of inter-
mediate forms. Further, it was considered desirable to relate all sightings
of the same object or objects to one another. The concept of a four-digit
serial number (major), followed by a two-digit subserial number (minor),
was adequate to fulfill these requirements.
To expedite handling of the data, temporary serial numbers were
assigned until each report had been evaluated and the phenomenon had been
placed in a category of identification. The use of temporary serial num-
bers permitted the consolidation of duplicate reports from apparently
diverse sources, such as a teletype message and an Air Force. Form 112.
However, this consolidation was made ONLY when it could be proved con-
clusively that the sources of the two documents were one and the same.
Factors of the observer's location, date and time of observation, descrip-
tion of the phenomenon, and finally, the name of the observer were con-
sidered. In this manner, the assignment of major serial and minor sub-
serial numbers in continuous series was made only to the reports accepted
for the statistical study. It is believed that the reports accepted represent
unique and unduplicated instances of sightings.
In the establishment of the serial-number system, it was necessary
to define certain terms, so that a standard interpretation could be achieved.
The terms and corresponding definitions were:
OBSERVER — Any witness reporting to a proper authority that
he had seen unidentified aerial objects.
SIGHTING — The report or g£oup of reports of the same
observe^phenomenon that remained unidenti-
fied to the observer or observers, at least
until reported.

Cases discussed

About this file

Analysis, from the classic collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 309 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.