Documents / Analysis
Special Report No. 14 was issued by the U.S. Air Force's Air Technical Intelligence Center on 5 May 1955. It is a statistical study of about 4,000 reports of unidentified aerial objects from June 1947 to December 1952. The reports were reduced to IBM punched cards and analyzed with methods including chi square tests. The report concludes that the reports it examined are very unlikely to represent technology beyond present scientific knowledge, and it notes that no case produced valid physical evidence.
\ future, it was imperative to develop a questionnaire form listing the factors necessary for evaluation of the observer and his report, and identification of the unknown objects. In addition, it was decided that such a questionnaire should be designed to serve as an interrogator1 s guide, and as a form for --the observer himself to complete when personal interrogation was not possi- ble or practicable. Ideally, a questionnaire for the purposes required should contain questions pertaining to all technical details considered to be essential for the statistical approach, and should serve to obtain a maximum of informa- tion from the average individual who had made a sighting in the past or would be likely to be reporting sightings in the future. Besides these dis- crete facts, an integrated written description of a sighting would be re- quired, thus enabling the reported facts of the sighting to be corroborated. Also, a narrative description might allow subtle questions to be answered concerning the observer1 s ability, such as indirect questions that would reveal his reasoning ability, suggestibility, and general mental attitude. As a whole, then, the information contained in a questionnaire should make possible the classification and evaluation of the sighting, the rating of the observer, the probability of accuracy of reported facts, and the identifica- tion of what was reported by the observer as unidentified. During the course of this project, three questionnaire forms were developed, each intended to be an improved revision of the one preceding. The improvements were suggested and confirmed by members of the panel of consultants connected with this project. • * * • • • • The original form was evolved by the panel of consultants as their first work on this project. It was intended to allow the start of the reduc- tion of reports to discrete data, and was immediately subjected to exten- sive review and revision by the panel. The revised (second) form was subjected to a trial test before adoption. ATIC sent a copy to observers reporting sightings, with the request that the form be completed and r e - turned. Of the first 300 questionnaires returned during July and August, 1952, 168 were analyzed by a consulting psychologist. On the basis of this analysis, plus the experience gained in working with past reports, the final form of the questionnaire — the U. S. Air Force Technical Information Sheet — was evolved. Copies of the three forms of the questionnaire, in the order of their development, are shown as Exhibits Bl, B2, and B3 in Appendix B. In order to implement the transcription of data from past sighting reports, each succeeding form was put to use as soon as it was developed and approved. Accordingly, experience was obtained with each form in relation to past data, an important factor in the improvement of the quality and completeness of the later reports included in this study.
Analysis, from the classic collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 309 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.