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This final report, dated September 10, 1996, was prepared by the Research Triangle Institute for the Department of the Air Force's 45th and 30th Space Wing safety offices. Titled Modeling Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations, it shows how rare Mode-5 failures, in which a rocket veers well off its intended flight line, are modeled in the DAMP risk-analysis program. An appendix lists Atlas, Delta, Titan and Thor launch and failure histories through August 1996.
From the source:Release of 2026-05-08 Incident: 9/10/96, N/A. This report describes the Modeling of Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations, documenting historical launch failure modes and recommending corrective actions to address them using novel modelling techniques.
. In Figure 9, the percentages of impacts in 5° sectors from 0° to 180° have been plotted for Atlas IIAS random-attitude turns out to 280 seconds. (It should be remembered that random-attitude turns are representative of combined random-attitude and slow turns.) For B = 1000, theoretical Mode-5 impact percentages are also plotted in the figure for best-fit values of A obtained by trial and error. 100 .----..----..----..----..----..----..----..----..-----, ·:::::::·····At,as·!!~r.::~~.......:·· m..A~-l~~e··F~Hur~~:r~~~~~.i..:~~::~~:::::::::::: _..,...:-···········i····················!·········Br-eakup·Qtalpha·ifldeg-i,b/ft·········+··..······........ .• ::::::L=J:............... J::::.•:g.ggfup:=I :::::::! =-~•:: -o ~o 'II ' ' I !: I ! a : ' d.1 5,00 : : ! i ~ -§ 1 0 ,_..,,..~,;~..,_______-•--•••.....~o•-••o-n•o-nn-nn.......•in-••••-••.,•-••••-••••....n~•-un-uu-uu-HH...j.U~--•..-oH-HH-•••n-in~•-••••-••••-••••-••o-,,o•ii-•u•-u••-••---••••-.. • .. •.j.....·•••-••••-••••-••••---r•••• . ..;....................;....................,........................................;....................;....................(................... 5s ! •••••· = ··--l···············.....l.............·······f••••••••••••••..··+········..sL··1···066 ..............····[................... ······i__i..:::::t=::t:::~:~:j ::= .5 C:-~Q) 1 ••••••H••••••• , I.n•••••••••••• .. ••••r•OUU '•L•••u••••• - '•=••t-=°=--A• u=••3·.20 '••••• .......i...,,uuou••••••• -: A=3.45 i ! i i. . .I .............. ••••~~OHH•HH~• .... ••••••rHHUOOOH•U•OOOO a.. :::::::::::::::::::r::::::: ...................T... ::r::::::::.:.....~-t.....::···:::~:::::::::::·······-----· ur•············••u••r••u•..-·..·••n•nHr•············-----· ···················r : ·•r 0 ••········•--u...!..............u ......r············••ooo : : : : :O ♦♦ •ooo,nUOH>>THO .... HoH•••Hr ♦ U ♦• :•:.:.•••uoOoO O OOOOHOfHH••••••••••n••• ...................-r···················•·········· ' .........,................... • ··r·i···· ! . . . . . . . .0.1 ................... · .. ·....................·....................................... ·...................·....................·....................·................... ·r i I I I 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Angle From Flight Path (deg) Figure 9. Atlas IIAS Simulation Results with B = 1,000 By observing curve shapes, it <;:an perhaps be seen that no single value of A causes a theoretical impact distribution and a distribution of impacts from random-attitude turns to match closely over the entire range of 5° sectors. Attempts to improve the match on one end of the curve by selecting a different A merely degrades the match on 9/10/96 42 RTI
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Report, from the pursue collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 181 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.