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Project Blue Book Special Report (second copy)

Internet Archive · 309 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14, "Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects," Project No. 10073, dated 5 May 1955. The study reduced about 4,000 sighting reports received by the U.S. Air Force between June 1947 and December 1952 to IBM punched cards and analyzed them statistically, including chi square tests comparing knowns with unknowns. It concludes that the reports very probably do not represent technological developments beyond present scientific knowledge, and it notes that no case produced physical evidence.

Coding System, and Work Sheet
The reduction of non-numerical data to numerical form is mandatory
in the machine handling of data. Thus, the selection of the IBM punched-
card system for analysis of data forced the adoption ~>f a master coding
plan. Since it was impracticable to transfer detailed data of an exact
nature from the questionnaire to the IBM card, an intermediate transfer
form, coordinated with the master code, was necessary.
The master coding plan was evolved during the early stages of the
preliminary analysis of data, and was reviewed by the panel of consultants
before use. It was recognized that this system of coding would be the
heart of the analysis, that is, the completeness of the facility for trans-
lation of data could make or break the study. Accordingly, eyery con.ce.iv-
able factor that might influence the identification of unidentified aerial
objectswas_ included, together with a wide range of variations within each
facjtor. The original coding system (with minor corrections) was used
throughout the translation of the original data with marked success. A copy
of this system, called CODES, is enclosed as Exhibit B4, Appendix B.
To facilitate the preparation of the punched-card abstract, an inter-
mediate form called the WORK SHEET (later, the CARD BIBLE) was
developed. Referenced to both the data from the questionnaire and the sys-
tem of report identification, the WORK SHEET permitted an orderly
transcription of data simultaneously by several people. In conjunction
with the CODES, the WORK SHEET was used during the reduction of the
original data to code form necessary for transfer to punched cards. A
sample is included as Exhibit B5, Appendix B.
After the analysis was under way, it became apparent that the me-
chanics of machine processing could be improved by incorporating in the
IBM card system group classifications of certain factors requiring more
than one column for discrete expression. In addition, the inclusion of
certain data relating to the evaluation and bearing of the sun with respect
to the observer was considered necessary. Finally, a critical examination
of certain segments of the data indicated the need for the definition of a
new factor relating to the maneuvers of the object or objects sighted.
Prior to the start of the analytical study, it had been assumed that a com-
bination 6f stated factors would, by inference, define the maneuver pattern.
All these additions have been incorporated in a revised set of CODES
and CARD BIBLE that are illustrated as Exhibits B6 and B7, Appendix B.
However, at the time that the maneuver factor was determined to be criti-
cal, it was physically impracticable to make the required definitions and
re-evaluate the original data. Therefore, no code for maneuverability has
been included in the CODES, CARD BIBLE, or IBM cards.

Cases discussed

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Report, cited by the archive. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 309 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.