Documents / Report
This is Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14, "Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects," Project No. 10073, dated 5 May 1955. The study reduced about 4,000 sighting reports received by the U.S. Air Force between June 1947 and December 1952 to IBM punched cards and analyzed them statistically, including chi square tests comparing knowns with unknowns. It concludes that the reports very probably do not represent technological developments beyond present scientific knowledge, and it notes that no case produced physical evidence.
/v Identification of Working Papers The actualjreduction of d.ata to IBM jaujijchedj^c_a.rd form presented a problem of mass transfer of figures by several workers. Recognizing that an orderly system of relating the original data to the questionnaire, the WORK SHEET, and the IBM card was imperative, a scheme of SERIAL NUMBERS was developed to answer this need. The first data consisted of a series of letter-file folders identified by the year and location of the sighting or sightings they contained. The num- ber of reports of sightings in a single folder varied from 1 to over 20. Under these conditions, there was a great possibility for incorrect tran- scription of data, duplication of transcription, or misplacement of inter- mediate forms. Further, it was considered desirable to relate all sightings of the same object or objects to one another. The concept of a four-digit serial number (major), followed by a two-digit subserial number (minor), was adequate to fulfill these requirements. To expedite handling of the data, temporary serial numbers were assigned until each report had been evaluated and the phenomenon had been placed in a category of identification. The use of temporary serial num- bers permitted the consolidation of duplicate reports from apparently diverse sources, such as a teletype message and an Air Force. Form 112. However, this consolidation was made ONLY when it could be proved con- clusively that the sources of the two documents were one and the same. Factors of the observer's location, date and time of observation, descrip- tion of the phenomenon, and finally, the name of the observer were con- sidered. In this manner, the assignment of major serial and minor sub- serial numbers in continuous series was made only to the reports accepted for the statistical study. It is believed that the reports accepted represent unique and unduplicated instances of sightings. In the establishment of the serial-number system, it was necessary to define certain terms, so that a standard interpretation could be achieved. The terms and corresponding definitions were: OBSERVER — Any witness reporting to a proper authority that he had seen unidentified aerial objects. SIGHTING — The report or g£oup of reports of the same observe^phenomenon that remained unidenti- fied to the observer or observers, at least until reported.
Report, cited by the archive. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 309 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.