Documents / Report

Project Blue Book Special Report (second copy)

Internet Archive · 309 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14, "Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects," Project No. 10073, dated 5 May 1955. The study reduced about 4,000 sighting reports received by the U.S. Air Force between June 1947 and December 1952 to IBM punched cards and analyzed them statistically, including chi square tests comparing knowns with unknowns. It concludes that the reports very probably do not represent technological developments beyond present scientific knowledge, and it notes that no case produced physical evidence.

\
future, it was imperative to develop a questionnaire form listing the factors
necessary for evaluation of the observer and his report, and identification
of the unknown objects. In addition, it was decided that such a questionnaire
should be designed to serve as an interrogator1 s guide, and as a form for
--the observer himself to complete when personal interrogation was not possi-
ble or practicable.
Ideally, a questionnaire for the purposes required should contain
questions pertaining to all technical details considered to be essential for
the statistical approach, and should serve to obtain a maximum of informa-
tion from the average individual who had made a sighting in the past or
would be likely to be reporting sightings in the future. Besides these dis-
crete facts, an integrated written description of a sighting would be re-
quired, thus enabling the reported facts of the sighting to be corroborated.
Also, a narrative description might allow subtle questions to be answered
concerning the observer1 s ability, such as indirect questions that would
reveal his reasoning ability, suggestibility, and general mental attitude.
As a whole, then, the information contained in a questionnaire should make
possible the classification and evaluation of the sighting, the rating of the
observer, the probability of accuracy of reported facts, and the identifica-
tion of what was reported by the observer as unidentified.
During the course of this project, three questionnaire forms were
developed, each intended to be an improved revision of the one preceding.
The improvements were suggested and confirmed by members of the panel
of consultants connected with this project.
• * * • • • •
The original form was evolved by the panel of consultants as their
first work on this project. It was intended to allow the start of the reduc-
tion of reports to discrete data, and was immediately subjected to exten-
sive review and revision by the panel. The revised (second) form was
subjected to a trial test before adoption. ATIC sent a copy to observers
reporting sightings, with the request that the form be completed and re-
turned. Of the first 300 questionnaires returned during July and August,
1952, 168 were analyzed by a consulting psychologist. On the basis of this
analysis, plus the experience gained in working with past reports, the final
form of the questionnaire — the U. S. Air Force Technical Information
Sheet — was evolved. Copies of the three forms of the questionnaire, in
the order of their development, are shown as Exhibits Bl, B2, and B3 in
Appendix B.
In order to implement the transcription of data from past sighting
reports, each succeeding form was put to use as soon as it was developed
and approved. Accordingly, experience was obtained with each form in
relation to past data, an important factor in the improvement of the quality
and completeness of the later reports included in this study.

Cases discussed

About this file

Report, cited by the archive. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 309 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.