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OSR Contribution to NIE 11-14-68, Soviet and East European General Purpose Forces, CIA/DI/OSR, October 1968.

Central Intelligence Agency · 115 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is an October 1968 contribution by the Central Intelligence Agency's Office of Strategic Research to National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-68 on Soviet and East European general purpose forces. It covers Warsaw Pact war plans for Central Europe, the effects of the Czechoslovak crisis, and the doubling of Soviet forces on the Chinese border since 1965. It also assesses ground, tactical air, naval and coastal defense forces. The text does not mention UFOs or unidentified aerial phenomena.

TOrsEiRET
IV. Capabilities
A. Ground Forces
1. General
The doctrine which emerged from a debate
published in the classified journal Military Thought
in the early 1960's had as its central theme the con-
viction that a war with NATO in Europe would either
begin with, or quickly escalate to, the use of nuclear
weapons. Nuclear warfare would not, however, avert
the need for large ground forces. These would be
required not only to sustain the expected high
casualty rates but also to exploit the nuclear strikes
by eliminating substantial surviving NATO forces and
consolidating the conquest of Europe.
The forces requirement was complicated
by the great distance between the probable area of
initial conflict, i.e., Germany, and the western
USSR where the bulk of the units intended for the
European theater of operations were located. This
complication, and the doubts that these reinforce-
ments could ever reach the conflict area after
hostilities had begun, helped incline Soviet military
thought toward the idea that at least a "short period
of tension" would precede the outbreak of hostilities.
Soviet writings expressed a hope that this period of
tension (which even achieved a certain dogmatic aura
by being officially designated as the "special period")
would allow time for covert mobilization and the move-
ment westward of some reinforcements.
The current Warsaw Pact ground forces
represent a compromise between the Soviet military
planners' concepts of requirements for very large
combat-ready forces, and economic and political con-
straints which made such large forces unacceptable.
Faced-with this situation the Soviets have sought a
solution through the development of a capability- for
rapid mobilization and reinforcement. The concept
is to maintain a large enough ready force in the
forward area--East Germany, Poland, and Czechoslovakia
-- to defend against an unexpected attack and provide
delay time while keeping a skeleton force which can
be mobilized quickly in the western USSR.
- 16. -
T() SEGRET

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 115 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.