Documents / FOIA release
This is a CIA Office of Research and Reports contribution to National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-64, dated 6 October 1964, on the capabilities of Soviet general-purpose forces from 1964 to 1970. It updates evidence on Soviet doctrine for theater warfare, the effect of low wartime birth rates on military conscription and the labor supply, tactical missile systems, the Soviet and Satellite tactical air forces, and Soviet naval submarine, surface and air forces. The report does not mention unidentified flying objects.
-Tp_SECRET and a number of unidentified objects were noticed to have moved about on the launch positions. The assessment that these sites might be ATBM launch facili- ties has, however, always been tenuous -- limited primarily to the area of mobility previously noted and an assumption that the antimissile missile (AMM) launches between 1960 and 1961 (very possibly conducted from Sites 1 and 2) were ATBM-related rather than the beginnings of an ABM R&D program. In any case, the AMM's could not have been fired from Sites 3 and 4, because these sites were still under construction in October 1961, the last month in which short-range missile firings into the SSATC were detected. Moreover, in 1964, Launch Position 5 at Site 3 was enlarged and revetted, causing it to resemble in size and appearance the revetted launch positions at the probable long-range SAM sites located at Talinn and Cherepovets. The evidence regarding the status of any Soviet ATBM R&D effort, therefore, remains highly tenuous. Some sort of ATBM program could be underway at Sites 1 and 2, and the activity at Sites 3 and 4 could represent a mixed ATBM/long-range SAM effort. It appears at least as possible, however, that the observed activity at Launch Com- plex A (and at Sary Shagan as a whole) has involved a steady progres- sion of events in an ABM development program which evolved into the Leningrad and Moscow systems. Finally, considering the difficulties that the USSR appears to have encountered in developing mobile SAM systems and considering the more difficult packaging problems involved - 21 - TOP CRET
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 53 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.