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Contribution to NIE 11-14-64 Capabilities of Soviet General-Purpose Forces 1964-70, CIA/DI/ORR, 6 October 1964

Central Intelligence Agency · 53 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is a CIA Office of Research and Reports contribution to National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-64, dated 6 October 1964, on the capabilities of Soviet general-purpose forces from 1964 to 1970. It updates evidence on Soviet doctrine for theater warfare, the effect of low wartime birth rates on military conscription and the labor supply, tactical missile systems, the Soviet and Satellite tactical air forces, and Soviet naval submarine, surface and air forces. The report does not mention unidentified flying objects.

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major classes in service. By conscripting fewer men in 1964, the USSR
could achieve a better balance between the conscript classes and at the
same time carry out a reduction in force. In addition, replacement of
the large class of 1961 by an equal number in 1964 probably would re-
quire more men than are estimated to be available for conscription from
the 1945 age group. Although the deficit could be made up by conscript-
ing men 18, 23, or 24 years of age, Soviet actions in 1963 show that
Soviet officials are reluctant to do so at this time. This reluctance
probably is associated to a considerable degree with the competition
for young skilled workers discussed below. The reduction in the number
of conscripts taken in 1964 that would achieve a balance in the classes
in service would be on the order of 500,000 men. A reduction of this
size probably will not occur, but a substantial cut is possible.
B. Effects of Low Birth Rates on the Civilian Labor Supply
The impact of the low birth rates of World War II on the sup-
ply of labor in the USSR began to be felt in 1957-58. At this time the
USSR took several measures to increase the participation rates of the
groups making up the labor supply. These measures included "anti-
parasite" laws, changes in the educational system, and a campaign to
induce housewives to enter the labor force. The result of these meas-
ures was an increase in the labor force during the years 1958-63
greater than occurred during the preceding 5-year period, in spite of
the slower growth of the labor supply. Therefore, reductions in the
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 53 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.