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Contribution to NIE 11-14-64 Capabilities of Soviet General-Purpose Forces 1964-70, CIA/DI/ORR, 6 October 1964

Central Intelligence Agency · 53 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is a CIA Office of Research and Reports contribution to National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-64, dated 6 October 1964, on the capabilities of Soviet general-purpose forces from 1964 to 1970. It updates evidence on Soviet doctrine for theater warfare, the effect of low wartime birth rates on military conscription and the labor supply, tactical missile systems, the Soviet and Satellite tactical air forces, and Soviet naval submarine, surface and air forces. The report does not mention unidentified flying objects.

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some theaters is allowed, and an element of contingency is introduced
into the question of whether nuclear exchanges will be immediately fol-
lowed by a general offensive by the ground forces.in Europe. Moreover,
in differentiating the length of a nonnuclear war from a nuclear war,
the article appears to be forecasting a doctrine and policy for limited
war contingencies. _Id
It would be premature, however, to regard the Sokolovskiy article
as marking a final turning point in the internal Soviet debate over
military doctrine. Already in the few weeks that have elapsed since
its publication, writings have appeared that contradict its spirit and
some of its specific postulates. Nevertheless, the reputation of
Sokolovskiy gives grounds for believing that the article is intended
to announce a new consensus on the subjects under discussion. As such,
it may be interpreted as reflecting the views that are now likely to
predominate in the formulation of military policy.
I. Military Manpower
The question of the size of the Soviet armed forces has been at the
center of the debate over military policy in the USSR since Khrushchev
announced his program for a drastic reduction of military manpower in
January 1960. Both the economics and the politics of Soviet defense
policy have been so intimately interwoven with this question in the
intervening years that it can scarcely be regarded as a mere technical
issue concerning the availability of eligible manpower or the competing
demands of the civilian economy. Nevertheless, these fa.ctor& -- birth
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 53 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.