Documents / FOIA release
This is a CIA Office of Research and Reports contribution to National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-64, dated 6 October 1964, on the capabilities of Soviet general-purpose forces from 1964 to 1970. It updates evidence on Soviet doctrine for theater warfare, the effect of low wartime birth rates on military conscription and the labor supply, tactical missile systems, the Soviet and Satellite tactical air forces, and Soviet naval submarine, surface and air forces. The report does not mention unidentified flying objects.
rates and labor supply -- have had a manifest bearing on Soviet policy affecting military manpower, and they are likely to have a continuing influence in the future. The effects of the low wartime birth rates on the manpower available for military service and the probable effects of the increasingly keen competition for skilled manpower that is being generated by the civilian economy are analyzed below. A. Effects of Low Birth Rates on Military Conscription The low point in birth rates during World War II occurred in 1943, when the level of births fell to about 45 percent of that 6f 1939. The effect of this drop on the numbers of males becoming eligible for military service is shown in Table 1.* Although the decline in the number of men is considerable, it is not as serious as was previously believed, and the pattern of decline is different. The low point was reached in 1943 rather than in 1944 or 1945 as had been estimated. The decline in the number of men available for military service is still of importance, however, in view of the fact that in the mid-1950's annual conscript classes totaled about 1 million to 1.5 million men. Normally the maximum proportion of men available for conscrip- tion from an age group is about 75 to 80 percent. The remainder are unavailable because of exemption, deferment, and such other factors as labor commitments and influence. As shown in Table 1, after deductions for those unavailable, the supply of potential conscripts in 1962 may have been as small as one-half of the requirements of the mid-1950's. * P. 7, below. -6- TOP CRET
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 53 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.