Documents / FOIA release
This is National Intelligence Estimate 11-5-61, Soviet Technical Capabilities in Guided Missiles and Space Vehicles. It was submitted by the Director of Central Intelligence and concurred in by the United States Intelligence Board on 25 April 1961. The estimate assesses Soviet surface-to-air, antimissile, air-to-air, air-to-surface, ballistic, ICBM, naval and space programs. It concludes that the first Soviet ICBM unit was probably operational around 1 January 1960. It also says there is no evidence the Soviets are developing offensive space weapons. It contains no UFO material.
a-00278407 TOP SEC 1-2-ET period 1963-1966 the Soviets will begin at least limited deployment of an anti- missile system designed for use against both ICBMs and IRBMs. The earliest of these dates is contingent upon a Soviet decision to assume the high risks of start- ing production and deployment prior to full system tests, and therefore is con- sidered the earliest possible date. If de- ployed early in the period, the capability of the system against IRRMR probably would be the more thoroughly tested. It should be noted that continuing success in research and development will be nec- essary if the USSR is to achieve any opera- tional antiballistic missile capabilities in 1963-1966. It is unlikely that systems which could be deployed during this time period would have discrimination capa- bilities against sophisticated decoys. So- viet research and development in anti- missile defense, perhaps including un- conventional techniques, will undoubtedly continue as long as there are ballistic missiles. (Paras. 60-62) 9. In the course of its program to develop an antimissile system, the USSR could achieve a limited capability to destroy satellites after they have made a number of orbits. However, we believe that for some years to come the Soviets are likely to have only a marginal capability under most favorable conditions for interference with US satellites. (Para. 63) Air - to -Air Missiles 10. We estimate that the Soviets have three types of short range (up to six n.m.) air-to-air missiles with HE warheads for employment with their interceptors. There is good evidence of the deployment of air-to-air missiles in the Soviet and European Satellite air forces, and possibly in the Chinese Communist Air Force. Soviet development of improved air-to-air missiles over the next few years is con- tingent upon trends in Soviet fighter and Western bomber forces and in Soviet surface-to-air missile defenses. (Paras. 65-68) Air- to-Surface Missiles 11. A 55 n.m. air-to-surface antiship sys- tem which has been operational since 1955 is believed to be widely deployed in naval medium jet bomber units. Two addi- tional systems are now estimated to be operational. The first is an improved antiship system which has a range of 100 n.m. The second is a 350 n.m. system, be- lieved to have been designed for delivery by heavy bombers primarily against land targets. Both antiship missiles can be used against land targets with reduced accuracy, and the 350 n.m. system pos- sibly could have an antiship role as a secondary mission. (Paras. 71-77) Surface -to-Surface Ballistic Missiles 12. The USSR has developed a family of ground launched ballistic missiles whose ranges and other performance charac- teristics probably satisfy most current Soviet requirements for iong range nu- clear attack and for support of theater field forces. Two short range missiles, with maximum ranges of about 150 n.m. and 350 n.m., and two medium range mis- siles, with maximum ranges of about 700 n.m. and 1,100 n.m., have been available for operational use for the past few years. • An IRBM of about 2,000 n.m. range, now under development, will increase Soviet coverage of distant peripheral targets and permit greater flexibility of deployment within the USSR. The ICBM develop-
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 101 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.