Documents / FOIA release
This is National Intelligence Estimate 11-5-61, Soviet Technical Capabilities in Guided Missiles and Space Vehicles. It was submitted by the Director of Central Intelligence and concurred in by the United States Intelligence Board on 25 April 1961. The estimate assesses Soviet surface-to-air, antimissile, air-to-air, air-to-surface, ballistic, ICBM, naval and space programs. It concludes that the first Soviet ICBM unit was probably operational around 1 January 1960. It also says there is no evidence the Soviets are developing offensive space weapons. It contains no UFO material.
2TOP S-ECRET 000278407 of our estimates of the operational avail- ability and the general characteristics of Soviet missiles. We have less confidence in our estimates of their accuracy, reli- ability, and reaction time. We have little direct evidence on Soviet programs for operational deployment except for the surface-to-air systems and certain air-to- surface weapons, and even less concern- ing missile production. Surface-to-Air Missiles 4. Since late 1957 the Soviets have de- ployed extensively a flexible and mobile surface-to-air missile system (SA-2) which appears to be the mainstay of the Soviet missile defense system against air- craft. The early Moscow system (SA-1) has been bolstered by the addition of SA-2 sites, and possibly by the introduction of the more effective SA-2 missile (GUIDE- LINE). Both systems are capable of in- terceptions at medium and high altitudes up to 60,000 feet and would have some capability up to about 80,000 feet, particu- larly if nuclear warheads were employed. (Paras. 29-46) 5. In view of the widespread deployment of the SA-2, and its potentialities for further improvement, we consider it very unlikely that the Soviets will develop an entirely new system to improve their ca- pabilities against aircraft and air-to-sur- face missiles flying at medium and high altitudes. However, neither the SA-1 nor the SA-2 appears to have been designed or sited to coite with low level attacks. We estimate that in 1961 the Soviets will have available for initial deployment a surface- to-air system (SA-3) specifically designed for medium and low altitude coverage of targets down to about 50 feet. (Paras. 47-48) Antimissile Program 6. There is firm evidence that the Soviets have had under way for several years an extensive and high priority program for the development of defenses against bal- listic missiles. This effort is apparently directed toward development of a termi- nal intercept system. It is possible that the widespread and diverse Soviet ac- tivities which we have observed represent developmental . programs on more than one type of antimissile system. The fixed nature of the installations and the gen- eral progression of activities towards work with longer range missiles leads us to believe that the main effort has been di- rected toward defense against rRBMs and ICBMs. (Paras. 49-57)1 7. We have no basis for a firm estimate for the date of first operational deploy- ment of a Soviet antiballistic missile sys- tem or of its effectiveness against the various types of Western ballistic missiles. The timing of first deployment will be de- termined by the nature of the system-- under development, the status of the test- ing program, its future progress, and the timing of the Soviet decision to deploy. We believe that for political as well as military reasons, the Soviets would wish to deploy antimissile defenses for the pro- tection of a few critical areas, even if the available system provided only an interim, limited capability. (Paras. 58-59) 8. In the light of these factors and the intensive Soviet research and develop- ment activities, we estimate that in the • The Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence. De- partment of the Army, believes that the available evidence permits more detailed understanding and estimates of the antimissile systems under develop- ment at Sary Shagan and Uka than are reflected in this estimate. See his footnote to paragraph 57, page 14.
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 101 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.