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/specialCollection/MissileGap/1961/1961-04-25.pdf

Central Intelligence Agency · 101 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is National Intelligence Estimate 11-5-61, Soviet Technical Capabilities in Guided Missiles and Space Vehicles. It was submitted by the Director of Central Intelligence and concurred in by the United States Intelligence Board on 25 April 1961. The estimate assesses Soviet surface-to-air, antimissile, air-to-air, air-to-surface, ballistic, ICBM, naval and space programs. It concludes that the first Soviet ICBM unit was probably operational around 1 January 1960. It also says there is no evidence the Soviets are developing offensive space weapons. It contains no UFO material.

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would complicate Western air defense
problems. (Para. 97)
Naval Launched Missiles
22. Submarine Launched. On the basis
of analysis of observation reports and
photography of Soviet submarines, as well
as on statements by Soviet officials, we
believe that two classes of missile carry-
ing submarines are currently. operational.
Both probably carry tht same missile, a
150 n.m. or 350 n.m. ballistic weapon with
a CEP of one to two n.m. One submarine,
the converted "Z" class, can carry two
missiles; the other, the "G" class, can
probably carry three or four. Neither can
launch when fully submerged. We believe
that the Soviets probably are developing
nuclear submarines capable of carrying
and launching ballistic missiles while
submerged. We estimate that they could
have available for initial deployment in
the 1962-1963 period, a nuclear subma-
rine carrying 6-12 ballistic missiles of
500-1,000 n.m. range. It is possible that
the Soviets have elected to equip nuclear
submarines with missiles of the type at-
tributed to the converted "Z" and "G"
classes, in which case a few could be op-
erational this year. We believe that the
Soviets are also developing a 300 n.m.
supersonic cruise missile designed to be
launched from surfaced submarines. This
system could be operational this year.
(Paras. 141-146)
23. Surfa&e Ship Launched. Two classes
of missile launching destroyers are now
operational with the Soviet fleets. They
may employ either of two short range,
cruise-type missiles, both of which are de-
signed for use against ships. It is possible
that a few cruisers may be modified to em-
ploy either of these destroyer launched
missiles as well as adaptations of land
based surface-to-air systems. The So-
viets also have operational a short range
missile, guided or unguided, for use in
patrol craft. (Paras. 135-139)
Space Program
24. In seizing an early lead in space and
following it with a series of dramatic suc-
cesses, the Soviets have sought to bolster,
both t home and abroad, claims of the
superiority of their system. The USSR
has sought to maximize the impact of its
achievement with spectacular "firsts," on
occasion timed to coincide with interna-
tional political moves. Intervening shots
appear to have been designed largely to
provide data for these "firsts." While the
Soviet space shots have collected scientific
data, the scientific aspects a the program
seem to have been fairly selective, and to
a large degree applicable to the support of
future Soviet space missions. (Paras.
147-148)
25. The importance which the Soviets at-
tach to the space program is demon-
strated by the assignment of leading sci-
entists to its direction, by the wealth of
theoretical and applied research being
conducted in its support, and by the allo-
cation of resources and facilities to its im-
plementation. Space vehicles have con-
stituted more than one-third of the total
number of launchings from Tyuratam in
the past 31/2 years. The impressive Soviet
record now includes: orbiting of the
world's first earth satellite and by far the
,. largest satellites; launching of the first
vehicles to impact the moon and to photo-
graph the reverse side of the moon;
launching of the first vehicle to transfer
from earth orbit to a trajectory towards a
planet; orbiting and recovery of the only
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 101 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.