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This Defense Intelligence Reference Document, dated 10 December 2010, was prepared by the Defense Intelligence Agency's Defense Warning Office under the Advanced Aerospace Weapon System Applications program. It examines quantum computing and DNA-based molecular computing as options for onboard supercomputing in future spaceflight. It forecasts working ion trap quantum computers within 10 years, simple DNA tile computing within 20 years, and self-repairing DNA computers and hybrid quantum dot systems on a 40-year horizon.
From the source: Release of 2026-09-18 Incident: 12/10/10, Las Vegas, Nevada. Released with redactions. This document is a Defense Intelligence Reference Document (DIRD), a technical reference format used by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) to capture baseline knowledge on a specific topic for later analytic use. DIRDs are best understood as reference and synthesis products rather than as original research. It is one of 38 DIRDs produced under the Advanced Aerospace Weapon System Applications Program (AAWSAP) between 2009 and 2011. Because AAWSAP’s scope permitted a broad range of supporting topics, not every DIRD in the series directly concerns aerospace systems or future threat assessment. The following summary reflects the DIRD’s scope and framing at the time of writing and should not be read as implying current validation of the concepts discussed. This DIRD surveys advanced computing concepts for future space and automation applications, focusing on quantum and molecular (DNA-based) computing as potential alternatives to conventional silicon electronics. The report introduces quantum computing principles alongside DNA-based logic gates, self-assembly, and nanoscale repair mechanisms, arguing that these unconventional architectures might eventually offer advantages in radiation tolerance, physical robustness, and specialized onboard processing for space-based platforms. It notes that near-term practical barriers remain substantial. Quantum systems continue to depend on complex cryogenics, shielding, and unsolved reliability challenges, while DNA-based computing remains a far-future concept rather than a viable alternative to general-purpose processors. Overall, the document presents both frameworks as long-term possibilities to complement, rather than immediately replace proven space-qualified electronics. It concludes that the stronger, nearer-term cases for such architectures are in highly specialized or hybrid roles rather than in fully mature general-purpose onboard computing applications.
UNCLASSIFIED/ /FOR: 8FFl@IJIIL tt9I!!! er•t I pitch.d By comparison, atomic diameters range from around 0.1 nm to 0.5 nm, with silicon ~0.2 nm, or only a factor of 100 smaller. As circuit elements decrease in size, the number of atoms making up the bulk materials decreases and ignoring individual quantum effects becomes problematic. This is the mesoscopic scale. At this size, quantum effects can introduce noise into the circuit as the unpredictablee nature of the underlying wave functions. Once the circuit size shrinks to only a few atoms, quantum effects will emerge from the noise domain to dominate the electrical behavior. It is thought that exploiting rather than avoiding quantum phenomena may prove useful in this regime for inorganic technologies. Following Moore's law, in less than 10 years inorganic circuit elements will be less than 5x5 molecules in 2-D extent. (Molecular machines built of organic components, primarily DNA, are discussed in a later section.) Shrinking traditional silicon-based general-processing technology to this microscopic scale is one motivation for developing new types of machines based on quantum phenomena, but it is not the on ly one. Smaller circuit elements decreased the settling time of transistors and thus gates on CPUs, allowing increasing clock speed (the CPU can execute the next instruction with shorter delay from the last instruction). CPUs today get most of their performance with parallel architecture, executing several instructions at once in different pipelines. Using smaller circuitry in general consumes less power, and this allows more parallel elements to be packed into a reasonable wattage package. The march toward smaller circuitry is continuing unabated so plann ing for the eventual quantum dominant characteristics is essential. It is common to use the analogy of the laser to elucidate the application developments possible with quantum computing. In one sense, the laser is just another hardware technology that makes light. Earlier light technologies include organic-fueled fire ( ~50,000 BC), incandescent bulbs (early 19th c.), and fluorescent chambers (mid-19 th c.). The light source to utilize is not governed by the highness of the technology, but by requirements of the application. One can read by laser light, but older and cheaper incandescent light will provide superior perceptible illumination to a page. Traditional semiconductor-based computing is cheap and plenty powerful for controlling navigation or driving ship status displays. The laser analogy is further revealing in that it is quantum effects producing a special kind of light that is coherent. Coherent light is single wavelength with all photons travelling in the same direction .f This coherence is a natural consequence of conservation of momentum in the absorption/emission process. (4) Coherent light is very useful for some applications that require low dispersion; for example, bouncing a beam off of a mirror on the moon, or the more pedestrian pinpoint highlight of a projected PowerPoint presentation. The practical uses of the laser are not universally bigger or smaller, faster or slower, or more or less energy efficient than the other hardware technologies that produce light, they are just different. Similarly, when we think of what hardware and applications will arise for quantum computing, they too are not necessarily bigger, smaller, or faster than traditional methods; they are just different, and many could not be accomplished with traditional technologies. (5) d Pitch is the distance between repeat circuit elements. What is most interesting about the 22 nm technology is that it was produced with 192 nm lithography. • At the mesoscopic scale, individua l wave functions are not prepared a priori or controlled in their propagation . Some of the noise components are correlated . 'Laser light is actually very narrow bandwidth rather than single-valued. UNCLASSIFIED/ /FOR OFFI&Iit.k W&E OHkY 9
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Official release, from the pursue collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 54 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.