Documents / Analysis
Special Report No. 14 was issued by the U.S. Air Force's Air Technical Intelligence Center on 5 May 1955. It is a statistical study of about 4,000 reports of unidentified aerial objects from June 1947 to December 1952. The reports were reduced to IBM punched cards and analyzed with methods including chi square tests. The report concludes that the reports it examined are very unlikely to represent technology beyond present scientific knowledge, and it notes that no case produced valid physical evidence.
Evaluation
0- Balloon
1-tetmnonicil
2-Aircraft
3-Lifhl Phenoii.
4-Birto
S-Clouds, Dust, etc
e-manic M > .
7-Piycfoloral
S-Unk«i«i
9-Otner
Total
Number
Certain
Xi
0
/S
J2.
J
Iff
Doubtful
y
90
A3.
.2.
y
0
0
0
3
t/7-
Total
1
HI
//If
£
I
ir
z
J-7
PerCent
Certain
IA
304
1.1
0.7
0 -4
SIM
Doubtful
i f
n
0.1
£> 0
o.o
t.Q
Voi
Total
J-.7
/M
i-H
•0-3
s:z
0 7
?>y-
/hi
160.
6 ~/0 ^j f£0/V05
Number
Certain
JJL
a
0
8
0
3.1
JL
78
Doubtful
/
/9
9
/4
0
6
0
0
3f
Total
6
7-7
3
1
0
f
0
1-/
z.
//3
PerCent
Certain
Jl
If.?
0.1
O.O
Al
-Zl
Al
i.t
Sf.O
Doubtful
I*
1.8
O.I
0.0
00
0,0
0.0
31.0
Total
nt
7-3-1
X.7
0.f
0.0
0J>
/%.&
/•?
/OO.
//-JS JV^/C^
Number
Certain
3tf
/
/
4 a
/S"
6
Total
n
n
toi
7
/
3
?•£
f
rr
/r
Per Cent
Certain
MA.
ML
H.I
AL
1A
AA
AL
J$
je.i
Jl
Doubtfu
f.S"
1-0
o.o
,
Number
:ertain
/
- /
/o
-21
_ t
L3L
Doubtful
2
0
6
/
0
J
¥1
Total
4-/
17
3
2-
1
/O
f
37
//
PetCent
Certain
M
JAR
S.2
0.1
MA
MA
J&
J2l
ziA
M
Doubtful
7.0
91
11
tJ.
DO
6.0
t-0
O.f,
4(1
1-1
Total
aU
£f
ps
/DO.
//or Srjr&p
Number
Certain
JA
1
J&
sf
%
Doubtfu
?o
P
7
0
d
4
///
Total
/
/ £ ?
/o
{0*
SYR
Percent
Certain
JL2
M3-
J L f
o.f
J2J.
-Ll
JfO
-£&
71-7
Doubtful
ft
t.i
do
M
0,1
a.o
Total
//.//
/IT
J./
0.2-
/.?
/%o
(.%
M
£///>/. i/Ar/0/1/
Evaluation
D-Balloon
1-Astronomical
2-Aucraft
3-Ltgfit Phenom.
4-Buds
5-Clouds, Dust, etc
6-lnsuffic. Info.
7-Psycholojical
8-UnknoM
Mttler
Total
Number
Certain
o
6
o
—&\
0
0
/
Doubtfu
• 6
/
0
0
0
0
0
O
o
0
I
Total
0
*t
P
0
0
0
p
0
/
,f
PnCent
Certain
60.0
0.0
0.0
-Jl
O.O
JLL
YJ1
[Ml
0.0
Doubtfu
0-0
0.O
&p
0.0
to
0,1
OP
O.o
2D.0
ToUl
CO
m
0.0
0.0
0,0
O.o
oo
0.0
D.D
?J>.6
/OO.
Number
Certain
/
a
o
0
o
0
o
0
0
\~~/
Doubtful
6
J
0
0
0
0
o
a
0
6
Total
3
0
0
0
£>
6>
0
0
0
J
s Pet Cent
Certain
6.0
33.3
fit)
O.D
0.0
O.D
0.0
Q.Q
0-0
0.0
Doubtful
00
66.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
et>
o.o
o.o
0-0
/?.O
fr-7
Total
00
/ooo
o.o
0.0
o-o
0.0
ao
0-0
0.0
0.0
f<>0.
//-3J Jeco/v0J
Number
:ertain
~7
/
a
a
/
10
Doubtful
d
0
/
0
o
0
a
/
0.0
P.*
/(.?
£3
4J.7
1.3
/OO.
Number
Certain
0
p
H-
0
&
Pet Cent
Certain
0.0
y£JL
f>,0
JUL
u!LLrol>
1M\
yAL
ll67
Doubtful
O.0
/ff
u.7
0.0
P.6
ao
0.0
0-0
0-0
O.O
?J.3
Total
AD
/(•7
ff.7
00
OO
6,0
0.0
D,o
6C-7
do
/0t>.
4
Evaluation
0-Balloon
1-Astronomical
2-Aircraft
3-Light Phenoa.
4-Birds
5-Cloods, Dust, etc
S-lnsutlic kilo:
7-Psycnolo|ial
S-UnknoMi
9-Olher
Total
6/ S£'COAfGS — S'M/m>T£J
Number
Certain
0
1
0
0
__L
0
/
7
Doubtful
0
f\
0
ft
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Total
%
p
0
I
0
MA-
Doubtful
fi.t
AO
O.O
0-0
0.0
0.0
O.0
o.o
00
0.0
0.0
Total
&p
o.o
fit-.*
00
o.o
O.D
ZU
/f.3
100,
Number
Certain
a
o
0
0
o
0
~2_
a
7
0
3
Doubtful
a
0
0
0
o
0
• 0
0
0
£>
Total
O
•0
0
n0
-Z-
• /
0
3
Percent
Certain
0.0
0.D
O.O
6.0
o.o
o.o
K7
O.o
33.3
0.0
/0OJ>
Doubtful
0.0
0.0.
0.0
0-0
0.0
O.o
0.O
0.0
0.O
Total
AO
0.0
O.I)
0.0
0,0
00
66,7
o.o
?3.3
do
Mo.
Number
:ertain Doubtful
V
Total
Per Cent
Certain
t.
v
Doubtful Total
A/ar Srs4r^£>
Number
Certain
IE
0
0
^ i
JL
_J_
3?
Doubtful
/[
<?
PerCent
Certain
J2A
• 7
0 0
0.0
1.0
22JL
Doubtful
0.0
9-3
0.0
O-O
0-0
O.O
r a.o
X.3
0,0
0.0
t/.$
Total
/(•3
47
o.p
0.0
1(3
9.3
Z23
IU
ftp,
161 Analysis, from the classic collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 309 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.