Documents / Analysis

Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14: Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects

United States Air Force, Air Technical Intelligence Center · 1955-05-05 · 309 pages · text from the file's own layer

Special Report No. 14 was issued by the U.S. Air Force's Air Technical Intelligence Center on 5 May 1955. It is a statistical study of about 4,000 reports of unidentified aerial objects from June 1947 to December 1952. The reports were reduced to IBM punched cards and analyzed with methods including chi square tests. The report concludes that the reports it examined are very unlikely to represent technology beyond present scientific knowledge, and it notes that no case produced valid physical evidence.

Enliatm
0- Balloon
l-Asfcamical
2-Aircnfl
3-Lifjht Phenoa

S
1
f
Doubtfu
J.
/f
3
O
0
0
0
0
0
1
7-2.
ToUl
5"
j /
1
0
0
o
r
70
Per Cent
Certain
±1
1A
0.0
at
0.0
li.t
1.1
111
7.1
08.6
Doubtful
2.1
Mf
t ?
0.0
O.O
to
I.H
1I.H
Total
12
H i
/2-1
at
06
At
/ / • *
ni
#.S
IOC-
Nunbcr _ j
:«tam
£
II
r
0
0
3
0
6
7
If
Doubtful
- £)
/2
J-
O
P
O
O
0
0
/•?
Total
i
/e
O
O
3
O
/
7
5-5-
Percent
Cerbin
/Of
20.0
91
0.0
O.C
r.s
lOf
12 1
tf.i
Doubtful
0.0
V-8
11
M
0-0
Q.O
0-C
Q.O
0.D
04
30.?
Total
10.1
11-9
O.o
O.C
ss
IP-i
U-1
tin
ltd.
Number
>rtam
1
(
0
3
0
/o
0
73
/
s~s
Doubtful
X.
/t>
7
0
/
a
O
0
6
j-f
Total
IP
7-2.
'S
0
3
/
/0
0
13
?
Per Cent
CerUin
u
ft'5
u
U
ao
170
O.o
f f
/ 2
H I
Doubtful
11
/zo
0.0
(-1
0.0
o.p
0.0>
t.c
S}.J
Total
12.0
US
If-D
0>.D
JC
12
12.0
p.o
ff-7
/a?
mi.
Number
Certain
7
/f
AO
I
3
*l
%
31
X
m
Doubtful
J.
7
,0
I
0
0
0
0
/3
ToUl
1
JX
?7
I
V
0
2-1
?•
3V
2-
1X7
PetCoit
Certain
\_r.f
Is.o
li.l
OB
74
£1.0
US
IC
30.7
I 6
9fS
Doubttal
1 i
•2-U
ss
0-0
as04
0.0
0.0
00
0.0
It. 2
Total
11
17-V
•312
9-2
3-2
Oo
/(.S
30.1
/•&,
IK.
Evaluation
O-Balloon
l-Astnnoraical
2-Airctjft
3-Lifhl Pnenoa.
4-Birds
5-Clouds, Dust, etc
frliauflic Into.
7-Psychotofial
S-Unknoan
9-Otfief
T o t -
A/A /
Number
Certain
'7
1Z.
3
0
It
I f
/PI
Doubtfu
£
/J
2.
• z
6
17
2-
?-?
Total
?O
2%
30
5-
Z
2.
/6
Q
I f
f
/*•?
Percent
Certain
/12
/•J.I
n.2
•?-3
CO
I.C
S.0
"+.0
H-1
183
Doubttu
^•'3
1-7
Iffl
IC
_l_c_
•t.o
0,0
0-0
0.0
IC
in
Total
15.5
71.9
23-3
7 7
1-6
/?••
t?,e
/f.O
4 3
/so.
Number
CerUin
JS
1
0
0
J.X.
/
7
/u-7
Doubtful
J-
IJ2.
O
$
0
P
/
3&
Total
33
31
40
2.
0
0
6
33
S
/T3
PerCent
Certain
15.3
M
/f-3
o.r
fa
0.0
11.6
3.3
i8.0\
18
go.3
Doubtful
7-7
13
CC
OS
00
0.0
0.0
0.0
OS
ft-7
Total
/t.o
21.3
111
l.o
0.0
0-0
IJ.O
3.3
18.0
110:
Number
;ertain
7*
fv
13
3
I
g
/J2/
7-U
#70
Doubtful
3?
72
3
1
O
f
0
1
/6f
ToUl
l/f
f£
/£6
17
( •
2
7*
a
63%
Pet Cent
Certain
ILL
11
lt-1
1-0
0.5
0-2
114
A3
no
3.?
73.7
Doubtful
Cf
CO
li-1
04
0.5
0/2
0.0
A3
0.0
0.1
2&3
Total
If.O
'S.I
7C.0
24
l.o
Ot
II. C
?•£
no
t.o
100,
Number
Certain
3?
A?
iff
6
• 19
0
UP
?f
II
Z7S
Doubtfu
6
/
O
1
P
s-
122.
Total
7S
Z?
/?•
O
f
//
79
/£
H-07
Per Cent
CerUin
•7.1
104
II •*
1-5
O.o
0.0
1.2
?-S
11-f
7.7
C1.6.
Doubtful
U
/ / • /
9.1
IS
p.o
o-2
0.0
0-7
1.7
32.9\
Total
i l l
10.1
3J
0.0
0-7
1-3
7-7
3.9
/St.
Evaluation
0-BaHoon
1-Astronomical
2-AircraH
3-lijtit Phenom.
4-Birds
S-Clouds, Dust, etc
6-lnujfiic. hfo.
/-Psychological
S-UnknoMi '
9-Othee
Total
Number
Certain
b
/ % •
, )
/
/
0
I t
3
f
/I /
Doubtfu
/Z
7
27
z
2.
/
0
r
rs
Total
ff
qP
.3
3
ff
3
10
166
Per Cent
Certain
34
'6.?
12
t.b
I t ,
0.0
JLJL
19
Q5.3
4.1
Doubtfu
11
5 .if
U.3
11
1-7
04
CD
0.0
0.0
12
33-1
ToUl
10.8
U l
Ml
1.8
1-8
O.C
H*
19
25.3
CO
100.
Number
Certain
0
1
I)
/o1
30
7$
Doubtful
/Z
IK
2
1
fi
0
0
I
47
Total
20
33
20
7
/j.
/
/O
1
yo
3
Pet Cent
Certain
Cf
n.9
7-2
0.8
•14
0.0
M
no
u
Doubtful
14
/ if ^
8.2
I.C
u
o.p
0.0
0.0
0.?
nt
Total
ICO
2&M
ICO
2f
3.2
O.g
8.0
o.S
2V.0
2-1
ion.
Number
Certain
r
2-/
3
D
6
7
1
j_l
if.
73
Doubtful
1
f1
O
2.
0
0
0
0
33
ToUl
7V-
16
17
0
2,
7
?-i
/O6
Percent
Certain
±1
III
It-H
2-Z
0.0
0.6
• C.C.
Q-1
/f.9
-5.2
C9.1
Doubtful
F.S
/i 1
S.I
0-1
0.0
I f
0.0
40
O.P
•3//
Total
n-7
3
ft. I
3.1
to
1.1
O.f
/
0
Q_
32-
ToUl
/ /
?^
/
O
Cf
Z
fof
PerCent
Certain
5.1
J1L
Q-l
1.0
0.0
0.0
g.C
-LL
11.0
14
67.5
Doubtful
10-S
Q.O
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Ac
30.5
Total
/O.S
-57.3
m1.0
(7.0
O.O
8.C
11
1/..0
7.C
/SO.
123
.

Cases discussed

About this file

Analysis, from the classic collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 309 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.