Documents / Analysis
Special Report No. 14 was issued by the U.S. Air Force's Air Technical Intelligence Center on 5 May 1955. It is a statistical study of about 4,000 reports of unidentified aerial objects from June 1947 to December 1952. The reports were reduced to IBM punched cards and analyzed with methods including chi square tests. The report concludes that the reports it examined are very unlikely to represent technology beyond present scientific knowledge, and it notes that no case produced valid physical evidence.
“Jet Propulsion Laboratory”1 page
(12) Case XII. The object had windows in its top and front and its top midsection. It also had a set of propellers around its waist. It is not possible, therefore, to derive a verified model of a "flying saucer" from the data that have been gathered to date. This point is i m - portant enough to emphasize. Out of about 4, 000 people who said they saw a "flying saucer", sufficiently detailed descriptions were given in only 12 c a s e s . Having culled the c r e a m of the crop, it is still impossible to develop a picture of what a "flying saucer" i s . In addition to this study of the good UNKNOWNS, an attempt was made to find groups of UNKNOWNS for which the observed characteristics were the same. No such groups were found. On the basis of this evidence, therefore, there is a low probability that any of the UNKNOWNS represent observations of a class of "flying s a u c e r s " . It may be that some reports r e p r e s e n t observations of not one but several classes of objects that might have been "flying s a u c e r s " ; however, the lack of evidence to confirm even one class would seem to make this possibility remote. It is pointed out that some of the cases of KNOWNS, before identification, appeared fully as bizarre as any of the 12 cases of good UNKNOWNS, and, in fact, would have been placed in the class of good UNKNOWNS had it not been possible to establish their identity. This i s , of course, contrary to the bulk of the publicity that has been given to this problem.--The reason for the nature of this publicity was clearly brought out during the re-evaluation study. It is a definite factjthat upon reading a_JLejw rje_p_QrJLs_,_.:^ that "flying s a u c e r s " a r e r e a l and a r e some form of sinister contrivance. This reaction is independent of the training of the r e a d e r or of his attitude toward the problem prior to the initial contact. It is unfortunate that practically all of the a r t i c l e s , books, and news stories dealing with the phenomenon of the "flying saucer" were written by men who were in this category, that i s , men who had read only a few selected r e p o r t s . This is accentuated by the fact that, as a rule, only the more lu r id - s oundin g reports are cited in these publications. Were it not for this common psychological tendency to be captivated by the mysterious, it is possible that no problem of this nature would exist. The reaction, mentioned above, that after reading a few reports,, the r e a d e r is convinced that "flying s a u c e r s " a r e real and a r e some form of sinister contrivance, is very misleading. As more and more of the r e p o r t s a r e read, the feeling that " s a u c e r s " are r-e-al fades, and is replaced by a feeling of skepticism regarding their existence. The reader eventually reaches a point of saturation, after which the reports contain no new infor- mation at all and a r e no longer of any interest. This feeling of surfeit was universal among the personnel who worked on this project, and continually necessitated a conscious effort on their part to remain objective. 93
Analysis, from the classic collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 309 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.