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This is a draft paper dated March 1, 2023, by Abraham (Avi) Loeb of Harvard's Galileo Project and Sean M. Kirkpatrick of the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO). AARO released it in full in February 2025. The paper derives physics-based limits on how highly maneuverable UAP could be interpreted. It argues that supersonic objects would produce fireballs, ionization and radar signatures. It concludes that when these signatures are missing, the distance and velocity estimates from single-site sensors may be inaccurate.
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