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This Defense Intelligence Agency reference document, dated 11 March 2010, is one of the advanced technology reports produced in FY 2009 under the Advanced Aerospace Weapon System Applications (AAWSA) program. It introduces the Statistical Drake Equation, which replaces each factor of Frank Drake's 1961 equation with a uniform random variable to estimate how far away the nearest extraterrestrial civilization is. In the worked example, there is a 75% probability that the nearest civilization lies between 1,361 and 3,979 light years from Earth.
UNCLASSIFIED/ /F8R 8fPll!ltllt "St OIIEI Contents 1. Introduction .......................................................................................................iv 2. The Key Question: How Far are They? .............................................................. 4 3. Computing N By Virtue of the Drake Equation (1961) ........................................ 7 4. The Drake Equation is Over-Simplified ............................................................. 10 5. The Statistical Drake Equation ......................................................................... 11 6. Solving the Statistical Drake Equation By Virtue of the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) of Statistics ............................................................................................ 13 7. An Example Explaining the Statistical Drake Equation ..................................... 15 8. Finding the Probability Distribution of the Et-Distance By Virtue of the Statistical Drake Equation ................................................................................................. 18 9. The "Data Enrichment Principle" as the Best CLT Consequence Upon the Statistical Drake Equation (Any Number of Factors Allowed) ........................... 23 lO.Conclusions .................................................................................................... 23 Appendix A: Proof of Shannon's 1948 Theorem Stating That the Uniform Distribution is the "Most Uncertain" Dne Over a Finite Range of Values ............................................................................................. 25 Appendix B: Original Text of the Author's Paper #IAC-08-A4.1.4 Entitled the Statistical Drake Equation ............................................................... 28 References ........................................................................................................... 55 iii UNCLASSIFIED//F8R 8ffl@Itllt "St bllti
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Report, from the dia collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 55 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.