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Defense Intelligence Reference Document An Introduction To The Statistical Drake Equation

Defense Intelligence Agency · 55 pages · text from the file's own layer

This Defense Intelligence Agency reference document, dated 11 March 2010, is one of the advanced technology reports produced in FY 2009 under the Advanced Aerospace Weapon System Applications (AAWSA) program. It introduces the Statistical Drake Equation, which replaces each factor of Frank Drake's 1961 equation with a uniform random variable to estimate how far away the nearest extraterrestrial civilization is. In the worked example, there is a 75% probability that the nearest civilization lies between 1,361 and 3,979 light years from Earth.

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An Introduction to the Statistical Drake Equation
Prepared by:
l(b)(3):10 USC 424
Defense Intelligence Agency
Author:
Administrative Note
COPYRIGHT WARNING: Further dissemination of the photographs in this publication is not authorized.
This product is one in a series of advanced technology reports produced in FY 2009
under the Defense Intelligence Agency, gb)(3):10 use 424 !Advanced Aerospace
Weapon System Applications (AAWSA) ro ram. Comments or uestions pertaining to
this document should be addressed to (b)(3):10 USC 424;(b)(6) , AAWSA Program
Manager, Defense Intelligence Agency, ATTN: (b)(3):10 use 424 Bldg 6000, Washington,
DC 20340-5100.
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