Documents / FOIA release
This CIA-released copy of Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14 is dated 5 May 1955 and comes from the Air Technical Intelligence Center at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. It is a statistical analysis of about 4,000 unidentified aerial object reports from 1947 through 1952, coded onto IBM punched cards with the help of a panel of scientists. The report concludes that such objects were highly unlikely to be technological developments beyond present-day scientific knowledge. It also found no valid evidence of physical matter.
# Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5 Evaluation All YEARS 1947 1948 1949 Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 26 10 36 8.2 3.2 11.4 3 0 3 15.0 0.0 15.0 1 5 6 4.3 21.7 26.0 2 0 2 5.1 0.0 5.1 1-Astronomical 16 19 35 5.0 6.0 11.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 1 4 13.0 4.3 17.3 0 4 4 0.0 10.3 10.3 2-Aircraft 72 35 107 22.7 11.0 33.7 1 0 1 5.0 0.0 5.0 4 1 5 17.9 4.3 21.7 6 6 12 15.4 15.4 30.8 3-Light Phenom. 4 2 6 1.3 0.6 1.9 1 0 1 5.0 0.0 5.0 1 1 2 4.3 4.3 8.6 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4-Birds 0 1 1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1 1 0.0 4.3 4.3 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 0 2 2 0.0 0.6 0.6 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6-Insuffic. Info. 26 0 26 8.2 0.0 8.2 1 0 1 5.0 0.0 5.0 2 0 2 8.7 0.0 8.7 8 0 8 20.5 0.0 20.5 7-Psychological 6 2 8 1.9 0.6 2.5 1 1 2 5.0 5.0 10.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8-Unknown 88 0 88 27.8 0.0 27.8 11 0 11 55.0 0.0 15.0 3 0 3 13.0 0.0 13.0 13 0 13 33.3 0.0 33.3 9-Other 7 1 8 2.2 0.3 2.5 1 0 1 5.0 0.0 5.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1950 1951 1952 Evaluation Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 6 1 7 17.6 2.9 20.5 2 0 2 14.3 0.0 14.3 12 4 16 6.4 2.1 8.5 1-Astronomical 1 3 4 2.9 8.8 11.7 1 1 2 7.1 7.1 14.2 11 10 21 5.9 5.3 11.2 2-Aircraft 6 0 6 17.6 0.0 17.6 4 1 5 28.6 7.1 35.7 57 27 78 27.3 14.4 41.7 3-Light Phenom. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 1 3 1.1 0.5 1.6 4-Birds 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2 2 0.0 1.1 1.1 6-Insuffic. Info. 5 0 5 14.7 0.0 14.7 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10 0 10 5.3 0.0 5.3 7-Psychological 1 0 1 2.9 0.0 29 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4 1 5 2.1 0.5 2.6 8-Unknown 10 0 10 29.4 0.0 29.4 4 0 4 28.6 0.0 28.6 47 0 47 25.1 0.0 25.1 9-Other 0 1 1 0.0 2.9 29 1 0 1 7.1 0.0 7.1 5 0 5 2.7 0.0 2.7 TABLE AISO EVALUATION OF ALL SIGHTINGS FOR ALL YEARS BY REPORTED Evaluation ALL YEARS 1947 1948 1949 Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 24 31 55 3.2 4.1 7.3 1 0 1 2.6 0.0 2.6 2 5 7 4.0 10.0 19.0 0 1 1 0.0 1.5 1.5 1-Astronomical 98 74 172 13.1 9.9 23.0 10 4 14 26.3 10.5 36.8 7 7 14 14.0 14.0 28.0 3 25 28 4.4 36.8 41.2 2-Aircraft 101 94 195 13.5 12.5 26.0 0 2 2 0.0 5.3 5.3 3 2 5 6.0 4.0 10.0 6 7 13 8.8 10.3 19.1 3-Light Phenom. 7 4 11 0.9 0.5 1.4 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 3 4 2.0 6.0 8.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4-Birds 5 2 7 0.7 0.3 1.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 1 2 2.0 2.0 4.0 2 1 3 2.9 1.5 4.4 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 1 0 1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6-Insuffic. Info. 54 0 54 7.2 0.0 7.2 2 0 2 5.3 0.0 5.3 5 0 5 10.0 0.0 10.0 5 0 5 7.4 0.0 7.4 7-Psychological 7 3 10 0.9 0.4 1.3 0 1 1 0.0 2.6 2.6 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0 1 1.5 0.0 1.5 8-Unknown 214 0 214 28.5 0.0 28.5 13 0 13 34.2 0.0 34.2 11 0 11 22.0 0.0 22.0 15 0 15 22.1 0.0 22.1 9-Other 27 4 31 3.6 0.5 4.1 5 0 5 13.2 0.0 13.2 1 1 2 2.0 2.0 4.0 2 0 2 2.9 0.0 2.9 1950 1951 1952 Evaluation Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 4 0 4 7.1 0.0 7.1 1 1 2 2.5 2.5 5.0 16 24 40 3.2 4.8 8.0 1-Astronomical 2 9 11 3.6 16.1 19.7 13 1 14 32.5 2.5 35.0 63 28 91 12.7 5.6 18.3 2-Aircraft 9 4 13 16.1 7.1 23.2 4 2 6 10.0 5.0 15.0 79 77 15.6 15.9 15.5 31.4 3-Light Phenom. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0 1 2.5 0.0 2.5 5 1 6 1.0 0.2 1.2 4-Birds 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 0 2 0.4 0.0 0.4 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0 1 0.2 0.0 0.2 6-Insuffic. Info. 7 0 7 12.5 0.0 12.5 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 35 0 35 7.0 0.0 7.0 7-Psychological 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1 1 0.0 2.5 2.5 6 1 7 1.2 0.2 1.4 8-Unknown 17 0 17 30.4 0.0 30.4 13 0 13 32.5 0.0 32.5 145 0 145 29.1 0.0 29.1 9-Other 2 2 4 3.6 3.6 7.2 3 0 3 7.5 0.0 7.5 14 1 15 2.8 0.2 3.0 </td
FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. The text was read from the page images by an OCR model; expect the odd misread word. 312 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.