Documents / FOIA release
This CIA-released copy of Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14 is dated 5 May 1955 and comes from the Air Technical Intelligence Center at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. It is a statistical analysis of about 4,000 unidentified aerial object reports from 1947 through 1952, coded onto IBM punched cards with the help of a panel of scientists. The report concludes that such objects were highly unlikely to be technological developments beyond present-day scientific knowledge. It also found no valid evidence of physical matter.
# Approved For Release 2005/07/20 : CIA-RDP81R00560R000100060001-5 TABLE A147 EVALUATION OF ALL SIGHTINGS FOR ALL YEARS BY REPORTED Evaluation ALL YEARS 1947 1948 1949 Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 89 51 140 21.4 12.3 33.7 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 1 4 23.1 7.7 30.8 1 0 1 4.0 0.0 4.0 1-Astronomical 41 33 74 9.9 7.9 17.8 0 2 2 0.0 100.0 100.0 4 1 5 30.8 7.7 38.5 8 9 17 32.0 36.0 68.0 2-Aircraft 29 19 48 7.0 4.6 11.6 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 1 2 4.0 4.0 8.0 3-Light Phenom. 4 3 7 1.0 0.7 1.7 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4-Birds 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 4 6 10 1.0 1.4 2.4 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6-Insuffic. Info. 26 0 26 6.2 0.0 6.2 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 0 2 15.4 0.0 15.4 2 0 2 8.0 0.0 8.0 7-Psychological 11 1 12 2.6 0.2 2.8 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0 1 4.0 0.0 4.0 8-Unknown 79 0 79 19.0 0.0 19.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 0 2 8.0 0.0 8.0 9-Other 13 7 20 3.1 1.7 4.8 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 1 2 7.7 7.7 15.4 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1950 1951 1952 Evaluation Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 8 0 8 36.4 0.0 36.4 4 0 4 23.5 0.0 23.5 73 50 123 21.7 14.8 36.5 1-Astronomical 5 0 5 22.7 0.0 22.7 2 3 5 11.8 17.6 29.4 22 18 40 6.5 5.3 11.8 2-Aircraft 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 1 2 5.9 5.9 11.8 27 17 44 8.0 5.0 13.0 3-Light Phenom. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4 3 7 1.2 0.9 2.1 4-Birds 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4 6 10 1.2 1.8 3.0 6-Insuffic. Info. 2 0 2 9.1 0.0 9.1 1 0 1 5.9 0.0 5.9 19 0 19 5.6 0.0 5.6 7-Psychological 3 0 3 13.6 0.0 13.6 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7 1 8 2.1 0.3 2.4 8-Unknown 2 0 2 9.1 0.0 9.1 5 0 5 29.4 0.0 29.4 70 0 70 20.8 0.0 20.8 9-Other 0 2 2 0.0 9.1 9.1 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12 4 16 3.6 1.2 4.8 Evaluation ALL YEARS 1947 1948 1999 Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 49 30 79 19.3 11.8 31.1 1 0 1 50.0 0.0 50.0 8 2 10 27.6 6.9 34.5 1 4 5 4.0 16.0 20.0 1-Astronomical 23 21 44 9.1 8.3 17.4 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 7 12 17.2 24.1 41.3 8 5 13 32.0 20.0 52.0 2-Aircraft 20 23 43 7.9 9.1 17.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 1 2 3.4 3.4 6.8 0 2 2 0.0 8.0 8.0 3-Light Phenom. 0 3 3 0.0 1.2 1.2 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4-Birds 6 1 7 2.4 0.4 2.8 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 5 2 7 2.0 0.8 2.8 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6-Insuffic. Info. 8 0 8 3.1 0.0 3.1 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0 1 3.4 0.0 3.4 1 0 1 4.0 0.0 4.0 7-Psychological 2 0 2 0.8 0.0 0.8 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8-Unknown 49 0 49 19.3 0.0 19.3 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0 1 3.4 0.0 3.4 3 0 3 12.0 0.0 12.0 9-Other 8 4 12 3.1 1.6 4.7 1 0 1 50.0 0.0 50.0 0 3 3 0.0 10.3 10.3 1 0 1 4.0 0.0 4.0 1950 1951 1952 Evaluation Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Number Per Cent Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total 0-Balloon 5 1 6 17.2 3.4 20.6 1 0 1 20.0 0.0 20.0 33 2.3 56 20.1 14.0 34.1 1-Astronomical 1 0 1 3.4 0.0 3.4 0 1 1 0.0 20.0 20.0 9 8 17 5.5 4.9 10.4 2-Aircraft 6 0 6 20.7 0.0 20.7 1 0 1 20.0 0.0 20.0 12 20 32 7.3 12.2 19.5 3-Light Phenom. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 3 3 0.0 1.8 1.8 4-Birds 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6 1 7 3.7 0.6 4.3 5-Clouds, Dust, etc. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 2 7 3.0 1.2 4.2 6-Insuffic. Info. 1 0 1 3.4 0.0 3.4 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 0 5 3.0 0.0 3.0 7-Psychological 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 0 2 1.2 0.0 1.2 8-Unknown 14 0 14 48.3 0.0 48.3 2 0 2 40.0 0.0 40.0 29 0 29 17.7 0.0 17.7 9-Other 1 0 1 3.4 0.0 3.4 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 1 6 3.0 0.6 3.6 </td
FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. The text was read from the page images by an OCR model; expect the odd misread word. 312 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.