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Contribution to NIE 11-14-64 Capabilities of Soviet General-Purpose Forces 1964-70, CIA/DI/ORR, 6 October 1964

Central Intelligence Agency · 53 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is a CIA Office of Research and Reports contribution to National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-64, dated 6 October 1964, on the capabilities of Soviet general-purpose forces from 1964 to 1970. It updates evidence on Soviet doctrine for theater warfare, the effect of low wartime birth rates on military conscription and the labor supply, tactical missile systems, the Soviet and Satellite tactical air forces, and Soviet naval submarine, surface and air forces. The report does not mention unidentified flying objects.

TOPKCRET L
As shown in Table 2, further reductions in the force levels
are estimated to have taken place by mid-1960 and mid-19 6 1, with an
increase by mid-1962. A plateau at the mid-1962 level is estimated
for mid-1963 and mid-1964. Given the distribution of conscript classes
that existed in mid-1959, the estimated force levels would have required
conscription of classes in the numbers shown in Table 3.
Table 3
Annual Requirements for Soviet Conscripts
Implied by Estimated Force Levels
1959-64
Year Thousand Persons
1959 760
1960 68o
1961 1,100
1962 760
1963 680
1964 1,100
Most Soviet conscripts are inducted at age 19. As shown in
Table 1, the number of men aged 19 in 1961 and in 1962 probably was
insufficient to satisfy the requirements for conscripts at the estimated
force levels and may be insufficient in 1964 if no reduction has been
initiated. The total shortage for 1961 and 1962 as shown by our data
probably was the range of about 150,000 to 250,000. The number of men
available in 1959 and 1960 greatly exceeded the requirements estimated
for those years, however, and the deficit in 1961 and 1962 could have
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 53 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.