Documents / Analysis
This All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) case resolution, dated 20 March 2025, looks at infrared video recorded on April 26, 2013 by a U.S. Customs and Border Protection aircraft over Rafael Hernandez Airport near Aguadilla, Puerto Rico. Using reconstruction and pixel analysis, AARO found with high confidence that the two objects drifted over land at wind speed and never entered the ocean. It concludes with moderate confidence that they were a pair of sky lanterns.
UNCLASSIFIED 7 UNCLASSIFIED makes identification difficult. AARO considered this interpretation unlikely, as the STK reconstruction demonstrates that the objects moved in a straight line at wind speed over land. Further, birds viewed through an IR sensor at the distances involved in this encounter would retain identifiable features, such as wings, or pulsate at the frequency of wing beats. Mylar Balloons: An AARO partner assessed that the objects were a pair of mylar or “party” balloons. The objects’ behavior is consistent with a pair of balloons drifting together and apart while tied together. The partner also suggested that the objects’ fluctuating IR sensor return may be attributable to the balloons’ surface reflecting light from the full moon through intermittent cloud cover. AARO does not concur with this assessment, because it is unlikely that an IR sensor could detect reflected moonlight. 1 Office of the Director of National Intelligence – Intelligence Community Directive 203: Analytic Standards 2 www.timeanddate.com 3 Journal article, Optics Express; Felton, M. et al.; 22 APR 2010; Measured comparison of the crossover period for mid- and long-wave IR (MWIR and LWIR) polarimetric and conventional thermal imagery; Vol. 18, No.15. 4 Ibid. 5 www.sunrisesunset.com 6 Journal article, Optics Express; Felton, M. et al.; 22 APR 2010; Measured comparison of the crossover period for mid- and long-wave IR (MWIR and LWIR) polarimetric and conventional thermal imagery; Vol. 18, No.15. (U) AARO is not a member of the intelligence community. This AARO information report should not be considered finished intelligence. It may contain references to finished intelligence reports and/or information provided by AARO’s coordinating interagency partners to provide context, show relevance, or substantiate AARO analytic perspectives.
Analysis, from the aaro collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 7 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.