Documents / Case file
This CIA archives copy, released in 2026, holds Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14 (Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects). The Air Technical Intelligence Center at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base issued it on 5 May 1955. The study reduced about 4,000 sighting reports from 1947 to 1952 to IBM punched cards, with 3,201 cases charted, and applied chi square tests to compare known and unknown sightings. It concludes that it is highly improbable the reports represent technological developments beyond present-day scientific knowledge.
From the source:Release of 2026-06-12 This is the USAF Project Blue Book with a CIA cover sheet stating the document is "Official Record Copy." With the exception of the handwritten note on the first page, the content of this document has been available on CIA's public website.
“Cooper”1 page
I Iwith the year 1952. In these charts, 3201 cases have been used. IAs the study progressed, a constant program was maintained for the purpose of making comparisons between the current cases received after I January 1953, and those being used for the report. This was done Iin order that any change or significant trend which might arise from current developments could be incorporated in the summary of this report. IThe 1953 and 1954 cases show a general and expected trend of increasing percentages in the finally identified categories. They also.show decreasing percentages in categories where there was insufficient informa Ition and those where the phenomena could not be explained. This trend had been:. anticipated in the light of improved reporting and investigating pro ceduJ;"es. I Official reports on hand at the end of 1954 totaled 4834. Of these, 425 were produced in 1953 and 429 in 195'!. These 1953 and 1954 indi Ividual reports (a total of 854), were evaluated on the same basis as were those received before the end of 1952. The results are as follows: IBalloons - 16% Aircraft - 20% I Astronomical - 25% Other - 13% I Insufficient Info 1 7% 1. Unknown - 9% IAs the study of the current cases progressed, it became increasingly obvious that if reporting and investigating procedures could be further improved, the percentages of those cases which contained insufficient information and Ithose remaining unexplained would be greatly reduced. The key to a higher percentage of solutions appeared to be in rapid "on the spot" investigations by trained personnel. On the basis of this, a revised program was estab- Ilished by AF Reg. 200-2 Subject: "Unidentified Flying Objects Reporting" (Short Title: UFOB) dated 12 August 1954. IThis new program, which had begun to show marked results before January 1955, provided primarily that the 4602d Air Intelligence Service' Squadron (Air Defense Command) would carry out all field investigations. IThis squadron has sufficient units and is so deployed as to be able to arrive "on the spot" within a very short time after a report is received. After treatment by the 4602d AISS, all information is supplied to the Air Technical IIntelligence Center for final evaluation. This cooperative program has re sulted, since 1 January 1955, in reducing the insufficient information cases to 7o/o and the unknown cases to 3%, of the totals. IThe period l January 1955 to 5 May 1955 accounted for 131 unidentified aerial object reports received. Evaluation percentages of these are as follows: I Iviii I
Case file, from the pursue collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 312 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.