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CIA-UAP-015, Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14 (Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects)

Central Intelligence Agency · 312 pages · text from the file's own layer

This CIA archives copy, released in 2026, holds Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14 (Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects). The Air Technical Intelligence Center at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base issued it on 5 May 1955. The study reduced about 4,000 sighting reports from 1947 to 1952 to IBM punched cards, with 3,201 cases charted, and applied chi square tests to compare known and unknown sightings. It concludes that it is highly improbable the reports represent technological developments beyond present-day scientific knowledge.

From the source:Release of 2026-06-12 This is the USAF Project Blue Book with a CIA cover sheet stating the document is "Official Record Copy." With the exception of the handwritten note on the first page, the content of this document has been available on CIA's public website.

  • p. 78 …Apparently these are harder to identify. I (3} Shape IIn this case, there is a higher…
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IGroup 5 - Night sightings for which the sun was more than 10°
below the horizon and which were not included in
Group 4. I
Group 6 - Sunrise sightings for which the sun was between 0°
Iand 10° below the horizon.
Group 7 - Sunrise sightings for which the sun was between O0
Iand 10° above the horizon.
These group numbers were punched on the cards and incorporated Iinto the coding system. The number of OBJECT SIGHTINGS in each group
for each identification was then tabulated and is given in Table I. I
TABLE I OBJECT SIGHTINGS I
Angle of Elevation Group
Identification 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 I
Balloon 156 17 28 83 40 0 2 IAstronomical 52 6 43 236 118 9 6
Aircraft 187 23 49 144 60 5 2
Light phenomena 8 2 4 25 7 0 0 IInsufficient information 72 12 26 76 28 2 0
UNKNOWN 134 14 25 150 86 6 7
Other 64 8 12 50 36 3 7 I
Total 673 82 187 764 375 25 24
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IAccording to this table, a large majority of the KNOWN OBJECT
SIGHTINGS in Group 1 (343 out of 467) were either aircraft or balloons. In
Groups 4 and 5 combined, a large majority (681 out of 899) were either Iballoons, aircraft, or astronomical. Accordingly, a re-evaluation of the
UNKNOWNS in these three groups was planned with the objective of deter Imining which of the UNKNOWNS in Group 1 might possibly be aircraft or
balloons and which of the UNKNOWNS in Groups 4 and 5 might possibly be
balloons, aircraft, or astronomical objects. More will be said of this Iproject later.
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Statistical Chi Square Test
IIn the meantime, mirror graphs had been constructed from the fre
quency tabulations which seemed to show that, when the KNOWNS (total less
UNKNOWNS) and the UNKNOWNS were grouped according to one of six Icharacteristics, the percentage of KNOWNS and the percentage of
60 I
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Case file, from the pursue collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 312 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.