Documents / Case file
This CIA archives copy, released in 2026, holds Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14 (Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects). The Air Technical Intelligence Center at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base issued it on 5 May 1955. The study reduced about 4,000 sighting reports from 1947 to 1952 to IBM punched cards, with 3,201 cases charted, and applied chi square tests to compare known and unknown sightings. It concludes that it is highly improbable the reports represent technological developments beyond present-day scientific knowledge.
From the source:Release of 2026-06-12 This is the USAF Project Blue Book with a CIA cover sheet stating the document is "Official Record Copy." With the exception of the handwritten note on the first page, the content of this document has been available on CIA's public website.
I IFor machine manipulation, it was desirable to be able to select the sample of cards (all reports, all sightings, or all phenomena) to be in cluded in a particular study. The concept of a SIGHTING IDENTIFICATION INUMBER was evolved to fill this desire. Using one column of the IBM card, and the correlated working papers,· the code for this function was developed. Multiple punching eliminated the need to use several columns Ifor discrete expression of the variations. Selection of the proper number in this column thus permitted selection of the desired sample of cards. ·1 Evaluation of Individual Reports I IEvaluation of sighting reports was recognized as a crucial step in the preparation of data for statistical treatment; inconsistent evaluations would have invalidated any conclusions to be derived from this study. A method Iof evaluation was, therefore, determined simultaneously with the develop ment of the questionnaire, the coding system, and the work sheet. It is emphasized that all phases of evaluation, even including the tedious prep Iaration of the original data for statistical treatment, were entrusted only to selected, specially qualified scientists and engineers. I Evaluation consisted of a standardized procedure to be followed for: ( 1) the deduction of discrete facts from data which depended on human im Ipressions rather than scientific measurements, (2) the rating of the ob server and his report as determined from available information, and ( 3) the determination of the probable identification of the phenomenon observed. ICategories of identification, established upon the basis of previous experi ence, were as follows: I Balloon Astronomical IAircraft Light phenomenon Birds IClouds, dust, etc. Insufficient information IPsychological manifestations Unknown Other I The first step in evaluation, the deduction of discrete facts from Isubjective data, required certain calculations based on the information available in the sighting report. An example was the finding of the approxi mate angular velocity and acceleration of the object or objects sighted. ICare was taken during this phase of the work to insure against the deduc tion of discrete facts not warranted by the original data. Thus, even though there was a complete lack of any valid evidence consisting of I I10 I
Case file, from the pursue collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 312 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.