Documents / Case file
This CIA archives copy, released in 2026, holds Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14 (Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects). The Air Technical Intelligence Center at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base issued it on 5 May 1955. The study reduced about 4,000 sighting reports from 1947 to 1952 to IBM punched cards, with 3,201 cases charted, and applied chi square tests to compare known and unknown sightings. It concludes that it is highly improbable the reports represent technological developments beyond present-day scientific knowledge.
From the source:Release of 2026-06-12 This is the USAF Project Blue Book with a CIA cover sheet stating the document is "Official Record Copy." With the exception of the handwritten note on the first page, the content of this document has been available on CIA's public website.
“Roe”1 page
TA,, oy F£D~ ""~
ltlmbel Per Cent NU!llber Percent
Enlaalion Certan Douttful Total Certain O..btful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful
,!,Balloon 0 0 I) Q. 0 o.o o.o 0 tJ 0 0 fl 0-17
l•Aslninom1cal t 3
" f0.0 15.0 1{.0 ::l .t. 5' ?Q.0 'fP.O
2•Aircraft 0 0 (/ o.o o.o o. tJ 0 0 tJ 0 II ""I
il-L1atit Phenom. ,; (J (} /}. () I. P g,g 0 0 0 11,/J - "4-Buds II () () 0./) o.o o.o a 0 a II d /),/)
1~Clouds, Oust. etc. u /} (J o.o 0,1} 0.0 0 0 .o il.d IJ,d
6-lnsuffit. ~lo. (J :J. It. 1 O.Q /1.7 a 0 0 a.II /7,0
7-PsydDlo~cal 0 /} /) IJ.O tJ.O t),0 0 /) 0 ,,,, b/J
1-Unkno• ~ n (} t?.P (),() /'J,(J 0 11 0 (),l "·"'-01111VF er Per Cent
Tola! ~ertain Doul>lful Total Certain Doubtful Total
JQ,p I :2 3 r. I/ II.I /7.
20.0 ..., I 8 'I//. 2 .5. f 'f'l,/
r. 0 If
" If :?.i'.5 0. 0 2:a.<
5.Q a q 0 0.0 u u
tM 11 () p 0,0 O·f o.l
o.o 0 0 () o.o (),0 0, /}
:;.q.q I 0 I ~.r 0,0 J,9
O.I n {l D o.a o.lJ /).I}
IJ0,0 II a a a.o 1.8 /}. /}
o-O I 11 I 5Jf oo S.'f
/QIJ. I 'f 3 / 7 8:/.j 11.~ flt.
Ceftain
2
0
:3
()
I
0
In
I
II
8
Certain
(J
'2
I
0
0
0
I
0
0
0
'f
Certain
J
2
0
I}
0
(I
1
0
t
:}
/S
/f{(B'
~p. /t,.
-.. Percem
Doubtful Total certain Doubtful Tot~
() J 'NII Q. /J 20.Q
1 'l 0.9 2U 1#,(J
() 3 3q,& Q.0 3M
0 0 au u.o Q,I
() I !U O.Q /A.O
(/ 0 o.d IJ,d u
() I II.I O.d 10,0
ti (/ ~-0 O,d o.o
() I /1.0 u 1,0.0
() 0 00 iJ.tJ 0.0
~ /() go,o 'JP. 0 /UV,
.4 &~sr
Number Per Cerri
Doublfu Total Certain Doubtful T~
2 :i o.d 70.0 2P.&
z 'f 7P.O 'lP.O 'fl O
I 2 /0. 0 IJ. p 10.0
0 a o.o ,. 0 o.,
0 p Q.Q (I. d n.O
.0 p ,. 0 o.o o. Q
0 I {P-0 o.o JP. 0
d 0 0,A 0.P ,.,
(J p O.Q o. , q,I
I I 0.Q ,o. 0 10.0
<, I 0 1/0.0 tl.O Ill.
0-Fc.JE·,._,,r,,.
Number PerCmt
Doubtfu Total Certain Doubtful Tola
0 < 8.J o.o 8. 3
8 I p l?.J 33.3 1/./.t
I I 0,0 f.l JJ. 2.
0 p 0.0 O·d Ar,
0 0 o., l},Q d~
0 0 4.1 0,0 IJ.P
(} 3 17.~ 11.11 /;l,S
(J 0 0.0 n,I) IO
0 r, ?r, 0 Q.d 'ZS.'
(} 2 Q, 3 /).d (. 3
'f '2'1 t7-5 J7.5 1/dd.
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I Case file, from the pursue collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 312 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.