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CIA-UAP-015, Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14 (Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects)

Central Intelligence Agency · 312 pages · text from the file's own layer

This CIA archives copy, released in 2026, holds Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14 (Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects). The Air Technical Intelligence Center at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base issued it on 5 May 1955. The study reduced about 4,000 sighting reports from 1947 to 1952 to IBM punched cards, with 3,201 cases charted, and applied chi square tests to compare known and unknown sightings. It concludes that it is highly improbable the reports represent technological developments beyond present-day scientific knowledge.

From the source:Release of 2026-06-12 This is the USAF Project Blue Book with a CIA cover sheet stating the document is "Official Record Copy." With the exception of the handwritten note on the first page, the content of this document has been available on CIA's public website.

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Number Percent Number Per Cent
Evaluation Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total
!,Balloon £) I I ao I, 7 /7 ti- I) ti 2~2 p, p 2.7, J
I-Astronomical 6 ~/) 31, li:'.2. 57)_ 'I: fl,., 3 7 /() /(. 7 it.9 ,;r. I.
2-Aircraft LJ. I s- ~-~ /. 7 'l,S" I 0 I ~ ✓ ,,,, CA
3-LightPhenom. 0 0 /) ao /)_ IJ /)_(/ 0 {) 0 rJ.() rJA ,.n
4-Biids 0 0 /) (),I! 0.0 17.n t> 0 0 t?." fl A ,,,,
frClouds, Dus~ etc. /} (} 0 /)/) M I!() 0 0
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6-lnsuffic.lnfo. {) 0 I') IJ {) ,11) OP I () I S.t. 0.0 ~/,
7-Psyct,,logical /) 0 0 O.o tJ.O 0.0 0 I') Cl IJ,O ll.O o.o
3-Unknown J'.:i 0 1::2. 1'21H ().O '2(/ I " I £/, On _t;t:
9-0ther S" /) s- '{,5' /J.O '{,5" I /'} I c;: I, o. I) I:6
Total ::Z7 3.2 S-"! IAf;9 .o/f,).. /()t) 11 7 /'ff IU.1 .70 /10
MA Ji;,vr
Number Per Cent Number Per Cent
Evaluation Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doulllful Total Certain Ooobtful Total
0-Balloon /.J. I r q, 1 2"2 Ill { 0 ( .11,p no 11,
I-Astronomical 1 , I 4- .7-MJ Ill ::,11 5' r IP :Jp,1, 20.0 ,.. 0
2•Aircraft G ~ q a.o ,C7 7An J I "1 IL I) t,.n {I>
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5-Clouds, Oust, etc. 0 0 {) /Jn ,, I> I)_/] () 0 r, "'" -" 0."0
6-tnsuffic.lnfo. // 0 (/ _2a4 l!. 0 ,I/ u 2. /) ;z._ yt, ao ~t)
7-Psychological I) (} 0 n,ll /) /) tJ.o ( 0 I IL,, /)I) i,,I)
a.unknown h Cl 6 J,'?.fJ_ /11) /]5 'I: tJ f" .. , ,, /}_/) ';/J {)
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Total 36 r /1,1;' l!O,{) ZIJ.p IM. I 'I 6 ).J 76.IJ 211.D /pa
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Number PerCenl Number Pe,COII
Evaluation Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doulltful Total Certain llodltful Total Certain Ooobtful Total
0-Balloon I C} I .?3.3 t/.0 <<,< () 0 ti 0 {I 170 AO
I-Astronomical 0 Ii 0 {)_/} O,o /) ~ ) ~ {, 15".IJ ZO-~ 1111. 2
2-Aircraft 0 /) 0 I)/) /) I) /Jn I I :2 '7 7 7.7 '""3-LightPbenom. () /') 0 // /J ()_fJ 17.0 0 0 /') t1,0 0. 0 {).IJ
4-Birds /) /} 0 1'711 l.n t},I) /} J /) /J.() no An
H:loud~Dust,etc. 0 r'l I) 17 t) /J,/J /),/) t7 I) /} ,,/) (J,/} (11)
6-Jnsuffic. 1nro. ;i.. (} 2 ~7 (),Ci 11.7 2 {l 7 IS,/1. /'),/) l,.h
7-Psyeoological Cl I} /J (7.(J O,() /),0 I) Ci () IJ,O /J,11 /J,/l
8-Unknovm 0 /J 0 /Jn P.tJ (?..I? 3 0 1 l<J.-=?/ o.n l::H./
9-0ther /J I) ,? IJ," /},rJ /l,/J
" {) 0 I) I) o.o 17,r,
Total 3 " 3 /P{).b Oo /10, t i- n 6IS ?'(S /{)()
112
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Number PerCeot
ertain Doubtful Total Certain I lloublful Total
ti 0 ti /) 0 ao o.o
q /'f ;2! ,,, < :J(." c.:i9
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t? /:) 0 /)I) ,,,., ()_I)
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£ 0 f Ill C. f2/) /U
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3_? /9 s-z 63,J, -.,,_,. /()0_
,Ti.Ii y'
NuntJer Per Cent
~ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total
I t? I .C'Q /J,0 ~-0
0 7 7 0,/) ~S':O JS.~
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z () z IP,n P.O /P,p
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rr 13 ]_t) ,,.I) 1£/J 100.
Nn.,, r H 6'FR
Nurrtier Per Cent
!Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doulltful Total
0 .3 '3 o.o 'Vi' g,f
'7 /(I ;J. I '"·' fJ/,') 11.U
/J ,:;-- s fJ,0 IIJ. 7 111.7
(J tJ 0 0() o,b (),{)
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0 0 n I fl /)_1', o.n
/;l. ;;22 311- 7~, 611.7 /Pl
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Number Per Cent
Certain Doubllul Total Certain Doulllful
I ti I ,z, r P.P
'ltl I "II O.f 2.1
~ ~ 3 l.,IJ (),{I
0 I) 0 ()_(/ 0.1)
0 J') 0 P.IJ 1./0
0 ,::? t' l,tl "-"s-- t? ) /0,6 17.'
0 I) /'} A.0 ao
'7 tJ ,., 111,q 4tJ
Cl tJ /} 0. {I {).I)
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,;Ive; lt.5T
Nu■ ller Per Call
Certain Doubtfu Total Certain Doobtllrl
0 (J {) d. {I c),0
I ?", ·.u I. f ~73
I /{) 1/ /,'! 1'12.
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() /} p e?,O 0,1)
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2 (J 2 1,f' /Jn
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I? /) CJ 0,() d/J
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/Jee E.,.,..or,r
Number Per Call
Certain Doubtfu Total Cerbin Doubtful
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2. r 7 7,/.1 tr,r
6 0 6 .,, .2 l,O
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Total
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Case file, from the pursue collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 312 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.