CIA-UAP-015, Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14 (Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects)

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ICONCLUSIONS
IIt can never be absolutely proven that "flying saucers" do not exist.
This would be true if the data obtained were to include complete scientific
measurements of the attributes of each sighting, as well as complete and Idetailed descriptions of the objects sighted. It might be possible to demon
strate the existence of "flying saucers" with data of this type, IF they were Ito exist.
Although the reports considered in this study usually did not contain Iscientific measurements of the attributes of each sighting, it was possible
to establish certain valid conclusions by the application of statistical
Imethods in the treatment of the data. Scientifically evaluated and arranged,
the data as a whole did not show any marked patterns or trends. The in
accuracies inherent in this type of data, in addition to the incompleteness of Ia large proportion of the reports, may have obscured any patterns Qr trends
that otherwise would have been evident. This absence of indicative relation
ships necessitated an exhaustive study of selected facets of the data in order Ito draw any valid conclusions.
IA critical examination of the distributions of the important char
acteristics of sightings, plus an intensive study of the sightings evaluated
as UNKNOWN, led to the conclusion that a combination of factors, prin Icipally the reported maneuvers of the objects and the unavailability of
supplemental data such as aircraft flight plans or balloon-launching records,
resulted in the failure to identify as KNOWNS most of the reports of objects Iclassified as UNKNOWNS.
IAn intensive study, aimed at finding a verified example of a "flying
saucer" or at deriving a verified model or models of "flying saucers" {as
defined on Page 1), led to the conclusion that neither goal could be attained Iusing the pre sent data.
IIt is emphasized that there was a complete lack of any valid evidence
consisting of physical matter in any case of a reported unidentified aerial
object. I
Thus, the probability that any of the UNKNOWNS considered in this
study are "flying saucers" is concluded to be extremely small, since the Imost complete and reliable reports from the present data, when isolated
and studied, conclusively failed to reveal even a rough model, and since Ithe data as a whole failed to reveal any marked patterns or trends.
Therefore, on the basis of this evaluation of the information, it is Iconsidered to be highly improbable that any of the reports of unidentified
aerial objects examined in this study represent observations of technologi
cal developments outside the range of present-day scientific knowledge. I
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