Analysis of Flying Object Incidents in the United States, 1948

This Top Secret Air Intelligence Division Study No. 203, prepared jointly by USAF and ONI intelligence and dated 10 December 1948, analyzes about 210 reported flying object incidents in the United States. It concludes that some type of flying object has been observed, but that its identification and origin cannot be determined. The study weighs domestic explanations such as weather balloons, rockets, flying wing aircraft and celestial phenomena against possible Soviet devices based on German flying wing designs. Its appendices include selected incident reports and descriptions of flying wing aircraft.

From the source:Release of 2026-07-10 Incident: 12/10/48, Virginia. This file contains a U.S. Air Force (USAF) Air Intelligence Division study, “Analysis of Flying Object Incidents in the United States,” Study No. 203, dated 12/10/1948. The analysis includes an assessment of various reported unidentified flying object (UFO) incidents and theories to account for their nature and origin. Overall, the study assesses that “it appears that some object has been seen; however, the identification of that object cannot be readily accomplished.” The study offers that two “reasonable” origins might account for the phenomena: technologies of a domestic or foreign origin. It also suggests that, if foreign, it is prudent for the United States to assume that UFO observations are attributable to scientific, military, or intelligence activities of the Soviet Union, and, in that case, to take seriously the threat such objects may pose. The file also contains contemporary UFO reports and examples of experimental “flying wing” type aircraft planforms that might account for certain commonly reported UFO characteristics. AARO Comment: This file appears to be an earlier draft version of the file contained in DOW-UAP-D094, whose content is substantively similar.

10 December 1948

ANALYSIS OF FLYING OBJECT INCIDENTS IN THE U.S.

## PROBLEM

1. To examine pattern of tactics of "Flying Saucers" (hereinafter referred to as flying objects) and to develop conclusions as to the possibility of existence.

## FACTS AND DISCUSSION

2. A detailed discussion of information bearing on the problem as set forth above is attached as Appendix "A". The main points established therein are summarized below.

3. The frequency of reported incidents, the similarity in many of the characteristics attributed to the observed objects and the quality of observers considered as a whole, support the contention that some type of flying object has been observed. Approximately 210 incidents have been reported. Among the observers reporting on such incidents are trained and experienced U.S. Weather Bureau personnel, USAF rated officers, experienced civilian pilots, technicians associated with various research projects and technicians employed by commercial airlines.

4. The possibility that reported observations of flying objects over the U.S. were influenced by previous sightings of unidentified phenomena in Europe, particularly over Scandinavia in 1946, and that the observers reporting such incidents may have been interested in obtaining personal publicity have been considered as possible explanations. However, these possibilities seem to be improbable when certain selected reports such as the one from U.S. Weather Bureau at Richmond are examined. During observations of weather balloons at the Richmond Bureau, one well trained observer has sighted strange metallic disks on three occasions and another observer has sighted a similar object on one

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