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This Top Secret Air Intelligence Division Study No. 203, prepared jointly by USAF and ONI intelligence and dated 10 December 1948, analyzes about 210 reported flying object incidents in the United States. It concludes that some type of flying object has been observed, but that its identification and origin cannot be determined. The study weighs domestic explanations such as weather balloons, rockets, flying wing aircraft and celestial phenomena against possible Soviet devices based on German flying wing designs. Its appendices include selected incident reports and descriptions of flying wing aircraft.
From the source:Release of 2026-07-10 Incident: 12/10/48, Virginia. This file contains a U.S. Air Force (USAF) Air Intelligence Division study, “Analysis of Flying Object Incidents in the United States,” Study No. 203, dated 12/10/1948. The analysis includes an assessment of various reported unidentified flying object (UFO) incidents and theories to account for their nature and origin. Overall, the study assesses that “it appears that some object has been seen; however, the identification of that object cannot be readily accomplished.” The study offers that two “reasonable” origins might account for the phenomena: technologies of a domestic or foreign origin. It also suggests that, if foreign, it is prudent for the United States to assume that UFO observations are attributable to scientific, military, or intelligence activities of the Soviet Union, and, in that case, to take seriously the threat such objects may pose. The file also contains contemporary UFO reports and examples of experimental “flying wing” type aircraft planforms that might account for certain commonly reported UFO characteristics. AARO Comment: This file appears to be an earlier draft version of the file contained in DOW-UAP-D094, whose content is substantively similar.
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a. On 1 July 1947, a GOA radar at Nokkuido, Japan picked up an unidentified target at 16 miles, with a speed in excess of 600 mph. This target split into two targets, each estimated to be larger than a P-51.
b. On 16 September 1947, an MNW radar at Fukuoka, Japan, picked up a target at 89 miles and trailed it to 19 miles, where it faded. Speed was 840-900 mph. The speed measurement, made by a good crew through a 70-mile track, is believed accurate.
4. Investigations conducted by Headquarters, Air Material Command, have definitely established the identification of 18 of approximately 210 so-called flying saucers which have been reported. Approximately nine per cent of the total number of incidents are, therefore, eliminated from further specific consideration. Among those incidents positively explained, three were hoaxes, two were from unreliable witnesses. In the remaining 13 eliminated incidents, objects were actually seen but investigation has shown that they were celestial bodies or phenomena, meteorological and carnival balloons, and airborne cosmic ray experimental equipment. The following examples are presented for comparison of the information reported by witnesses and true identification of the object involved:
a. On 22 July 1948, Captain Henry Glover (Ordnance Reserve) and his wife observed at Van Nuys, California, an object which they were unable to positively identify. Object at first appeared to be round and looked like a weather balloon at about 2,000 feet but there was no characteristic bobbing. The wind was blowing on the ground but the object was quite steady. During the time it was under observation, about an hour, it traveled through a vertical arc of about twenty-five $ (25^{\circ}) $ degrees or more. The observer concluded that it was not a celestial body. It had a bluish luminescence and as the sun set, the object's color gradually changed to orange at dusk and ceased to be illuminated Report, from the pursue collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. The text was read from the page images by GLM-OCR; expect the odd misread word. 67 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.