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This final report, dated September 10, 1996, was prepared by the Research Triangle Institute for the Department of the Air Force's 45th and 30th Space Wing safety offices. Titled Modeling Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations, it shows how rare Mode-5 failures, in which a rocket veers well off its intended flight line, are modeled in the DAMP risk-analysis program. An appendix lists Atlas, Delta, Titan and Thor launch and failure histories through August 1996.
From the source:Release of 2026-05-08 Incident: 9/10/96, N/A. This report describes the Modeling of Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations, documenting historical launch failure modes and recommending corrective actions to address them using novel modelling techniques.
“Titan II”13 pages
Another way to show how the value of A affects Mode-5 impacts is illustrated in Figure 34. For the same values of A used previouslyin Figure 33, the graphs in Figure 34 show the percentages of impacts in any 5° sector between radials that make angles of 0° and (0 + 5)0 with respect to the flight line. It is interesting to note that if A is set equal to 1.0 with B = 1,000, impacts in all 5° sectors are approximately the same, thus resulting in an impact-density function that is essentially uniform in direction. 1,, . Oat~ for Atlas IIAS ! J I=10Jo 1 !,,: , , 1 -iA =1 0 ' . . l. .l .1 - - -!.A = 2 0. ~ 10 e.... \ l l • I r i -----jA = 3jo ... , , 1 ---···,A= 4•0 0 0 ' I I IA = sJoQ) en C) Q) ~ C 1 c ~Q) a.. 0.1 , , ,, o ~l i I ! 0 20 40 60 80 100 12n 140 160 180 Angle from Flight Path, Theta (deg) Figure 34. Percentage of Impacts in 5-Degree Sectors For A= 1, the Mode-5 impact-density function is essentially the same as a density function formerly used in the Launch Risk Analysis (LARA) Program at the Western Range to model gross azimuth failures. This response mode was called the Gross Flight Deviation Failure (GFDF) mode. In LARA the range and azimuth portions of the GFDF density function were assumed to be independent. Impact azimuths were uniformly distributed, while the range density function can be represented as (8) 9/10/96 88 RTI
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Report, from the pursue collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 181 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.