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This final report, dated September 10, 1996, was prepared by the Research Triangle Institute for the Department of the Air Force's 45th and 30th Space Wing safety offices. Titled Modeling Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations, it shows how rare Mode-5 failures, in which a rocket veers well off its intended flight line, are modeled in the DAMP risk-analysis program. An appendix lists Atlas, Delta, Titan and Thor launch and failure histories through August 1996.
From the source:Release of 2026-05-08 Incident: 9/10/96, N/A. This report describes the Modeling of Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations, documenting historical launch failure modes and recommending corrective actions to address them using novel modelling techniques.
“Lockheed”3 pages
There are other ways to show how the value chosen for A affects the Mode-5 impact density function For five values of A, the plots in Figure 33 show the percentages* of Atlas IIAS impacts that lie between the flight line and any radial line through the launch point that makes an angle 8 with respect to the flight line. If A = 3.0, it can be seen that approximately 46% of all Mode-5 impacts lie between 0° and 20°. If A is 4.0, the percentage of impacts between 0° and 20° increases to about 64%. 100 ..J..-.--- ..;,,-.......r ..: ......r.........90 :.-, 80 70 60 C-(I) e 50 (I) ,f ' ! / ! 1 !Data jfor Atl. s IIA~ a.. .... ,'.j..............,r ............. ;............;...............;.............. !...............i...............;............40 : / i ' : : 8 = 1 000 i 30 /J/ I ! I j i-~=1-~ , , , - - - = 2.u 20 r·•,l-r•····· ••••••••••••••••••••••••• • •••••••••••••••••••••••• -----~ =·3.()·········· / 1 : ; ; . , --- A= 4.() 10 O / 1 r I r r= 5·~ 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140· 160 180 Theta (deg) Figure 33. Percentage of Impacts Between Flight Line and Any Radial ············~ ·············· l : ---: ...... -t-/.; * The Mode-5 impact density function must be integrated numerically to arrive at the values plotted in Figure 33. Since the quantity R that appears in the density function is trajectory dependent, somewhat different curves would be obtained for other trajectories and vehicles. 9/10/96 87 RTI
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Report, from the pursue collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 181 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.