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This final report, dated September 10, 1996, was prepared by the Research Triangle Institute for the Department of the Air Force's 45th and 30th Space Wing safety offices. Titled Modeling Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations, it shows how rare Mode-5 failures, in which a rocket veers well off its intended flight line, are modeled in the DAMP risk-analysis program. An appendix lists Atlas, Delta, Titan and Thor launch and failure histories through August 1996.
From the source:Release of 2026-05-08 Incident: 9/10/96, N/A. This report describes the Modeling of Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations, documenting historical launch failure modes and recommending corrective actions to address them using novel modelling techniques.
“Titan II”13 pages
Figure 31 shows that a good fit for the no-breakup case is possible if higher values of B and A are used. The simulated malfunction-tum impact distributions for the breakup cases plotted in this figure are identical with those in Figure 30. Since the theoretical percentages for B = 1,000 produced excellent fits, these values were simply replotted in Figure 31. For the no-breakup case, various combinations of Band A were tried before arriving at the plot shown in the figure. 100 i==:::::::i==:::::::::i:=====r.===:::::r:::::::::::::::::::::r::::::::::::==r.:==:::::::r.::===:::::::::r:::==:::::::i ·············t·ttv·'4···R,.,-""·,t;,.n>\"···A•tt'' • ·C'l"i't•·~·......is··•k·;,;•;;;(1~k··~n . ··,s;,•••~U•&..-J-n•••n•-•n•noo).••••ouu•uuaH: .uu6&&HUHH•n,Cou•••••••••••••••••f• u•H ....HH•••••••• ···················:··················•:•········..·······••:••·····-········••:••·······..······••:••···············••:••·····..···········:·--····...............••••••••••••••••..•t•••oH•H .................•!••••••••••••••••••• f•••••••••••n••••••: •••••,_,.,.,.._._..,.. ... •1••••••••••........••••••: • : .-+uH.......•••• : n••!•--••••••••....••••+••••uuu••••• ..... ~...........................•:-- 0••••••....••t•••••• ~:~~~:~:~~~~~~~:~~r-•«««•••• ..•--- ••• ~• >Omu••••••• I ••••t:~~~::::::::::::::t::::~::::::::::::::t::::::::::::::::~~~ ~ •••m••••••••mm~ •••••••mh••• o++0 •0"••.,••••••••••••• i ; ____..,___•u••• [ n•••••Uuu••t•••uuuu ............ ol ♦ -••••••••H•n ...... , .. : ....... •n••••••••on•f •••••• .. •u.. uu, .... .. i i i I l l i ll i l ~ i ~ ! 0.01 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Angle From Flight Path (deg) Figure 31. LLVl Simulation Results with Best-Fit Shaping Constants 9/10/96 71 RTI
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Report, from the pursue collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 181 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.