Documents / Report
This final report, dated September 10, 1996, was prepared by the Research Triangle Institute for the Department of the Air Force's 45th and 30th Space Wing safety offices. Titled Modeling Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations, it shows how rare Mode-5 failures, in which a rocket veers well off its intended flight line, are modeled in the DAMP risk-analysis program. An appendix lists Atlas, Delta, Titan and Thor launch and failure histories through August 1996.
From the source:Release of 2026-05-08 Incident: 9/10/96, N/A. This report describes the Modeling of Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations, documenting historical launch failure modes and recommending corrective actions to address them using novel modelling techniques.
“Mission Control”17 pages
Figure 31. LLVl Simulation Results with Best-Fit Shaping Constants ............................. 71 Figure 32. £-Ratios for Ranges from 1 to 25 Miles .............................................................. 86 Figure 33. Percentage of Impacts Between Flight Line and Any Radial .......................... 87 Figure 34. Percentage of Impacts in 5-Degree Sectors ........................................................ 88 Figure 35. Exponential Weights for Fading-Memory Filters ............................................. 93 Figure 36. Recursive Filter Factor for Last Data Point........................................................ 94 Figure 37, Atlas Launch Summary..................................................................................... 102 Figure 38. Delta Launch Summary." ................................................................................... 135 Figure 39. Titan Launch Summary..................................................................................... 148 Figure 40. Thor Launch Summary ..................................................................................... 164 Table of Tables Table 1. Effects of Mode-5 Shaping Constant A on Atlas IIA Risks .................................. 10 Table 2. Predicted Failure Probabilities for Representative Configurations .................... 17 Table 3. Predicted Failure Probabilities for All Configurations ........................................ 18 Table 4. Comparison of Weighting Percentages ................................................................. 19 Table 5. Filter Factor Influence on Weighting Percentages ................................................ 21 Table 6. Failure Probabilities for Atlas, Delta, and Titan ................................................... 24 Table 7. Number of Atlas Failures - All Configurations (532 Flights) .............................. 25 Table 8. Number of Delta Failures-All Configurations (232 Flights).............................. 25 Table 9. Number of Titan Failures - All Configurations (337 Flights) .............................. 25 Table 10. Number of Eastern-Range Thor Failures (85 Flights) ........................................ 25 Table 11. Number of Failures for All Vehicles (1186 Flights)............................................ 26 Table 12. Date of Most Recent Failure ................................................................................. 26 Table 13. Percentage Weighting for Sample of 1186 Launches ......................................... 27 Table 14. Response-Mode Occurrence Percentages ............................................................ 27 Table 15. Recommended Response-Mode Percentages for Flight Phases O- 2................ 28 Table 16. Recommended Response-Mode Percentages for Flight Phases O- 1................ 29 Table 17. Absolute Failure Probabilities for Response Modes 1 - 5 .................................. 29 Table 18. Percent of Response Modes 3 and 4 That Tumble .............................................. 30 9/10/96 V
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Report, from the pursue collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 181 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.