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This final report, dated September 10, 1996, was prepared by the Research Triangle Institute for the Department of the Air Force's 45th and 30th Space Wing safety offices. Titled Modeling Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations, it shows how rare Mode-5 failures, in which a rocket veers well off its intended flight line, are modeled in the DAMP risk-analysis program. An appendix lists Atlas, Delta, Titan and Thor launch and failure histories through August 1996.
From the source:Release of 2026-05-08 Incident: 9/10/96, N/A. This report describes the Modeling of Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations, documenting historical launch failure modes and recommending corrective actions to address them using novel modelling techniques.
The simulated impact distributions plotted in Figure 28 are identical to those shown in Figure 27. The theoretical Mode-5 percentages were obtained by testing various combinations of B and A until a good fit between the simulated malfunction-turn results and theoretical impact-distribution data was obtained in the sectors from ±60° to ±180°. Although somewhat better fits may be possible for the lower breakup qa's, the effort to find them did not seem worthwhile, since the A's and B's shown in the figure produced fits that were more than adequate in the sectors where the population centers are located. - - .....- .......................- .......................-.....- .......100 .--..........- .....-......--....-.....-...........--.....-.....- ......--....-.....- - .....-.....-..................-.....-.--~-=-.-.....-......-,-- - - ....- .....-. · ::::::::::::::Titan::l:V::Randor:h-:=Attitude::Eaitures:thtough:::300:serl:::::::::::::::::::: 2 I j -1+eaku~~m~t:;~tlb/lt [ i ! ···1. 20!000 i ! i i················: ···················1····················:···················~····················:···················,-···················:····················t···················· 1 1 :o 10j000 1 I 1 1 - i i iII siooo i I i I10 t---1_____.,.._.--+---+-.--+-.--+-.----+-----1 '# -1- 0 : ·:~::::::::1::::::::::::::::::J:::::::::::::A:- :2.1~,::a~~=Ja~ooo:~c:::::::::::::·::: t, -----··········+-················-+-----··-A·- 3.15,-·B··-2,00O···-+···················Q) Cl) C) =+ ··· F l_::::=_=J~~:~H:gggfQ) ················----j------------ ------i---------- ---------·-·-;·-------- ··············1····················r····-······-·····-- VLC) .5 ! I I I1 ....................,................... ..,......... . ..............;....................,.................... C: Q)-~ :::::::::::::::::::f:::::::::: : ::;~~~····:::::::::::::::s~~~=t:~~~=::····················r·····------- : ••••• ·-r········· : -----·-·--····1·······-------------t······-·············Q) ...................t············· i ·········1 '·················--t···················1····················i..-················· --------..--·······-r············--......... --------··········1········· ~........._ ·······~·········...........r................... a.. ···•·•••..··········~············--·········1····················: : • I : I 0.1 I •••••••••••..•••••••.,,••••••••••••---.--•••••••••:••••••••u••••••••••:•••••.. •••••• .......: ....••--.......•••••••••••••••••..•••••••••••••••••••.. ••••••••••••••••• • --·········••i••·······································~·················••-i•..···············••i••·····.............;.................... : ---+--·········~·········· ~ ··············: ····--.............t..·················i···········......... ~ .................... : .........,...-··················· . ··············.········•..········.·--················.·······----·--..··--,···················· ....................!, .............--,..-·•······· ......... : : : ~ : ' i ! i ! !···················-r············--···--r------············· ···········--·······:·····...••••• ..····-r··············.....1....................~·················...t•••••••••••••••••••• 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Angle From Flight Path (deg) Figure 28. Titan Simulation Results with Best-Fit Shaping Constants 9/10/96 67 RTI
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