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This final report, dated September 10, 1996, was prepared by the Research Triangle Institute for the Department of the Air Force's 45th and 30th Space Wing safety offices. Titled Modeling Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations, it shows how rare Mode-5 failures, in which a rocket veers well off its intended flight line, are modeled in the DAMP risk-analysis program. An appendix lists Atlas, Delta, Titan and Thor launch and failure histories through August 1996.
From the source:Release of 2026-05-08 Incident: 9/10/96, N/A. This report describes the Modeling of Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations, documenting historical launch failure modes and recommending corrective actions to address them using novel modelling techniques.
“Titan II”13 pages
Figure 27 shows the percentages of malfunction-tum impacts in 5° sectors for no
breakup and for breakup qa's of 20,000, 10,000, and 5,000 deg-lb/ft2. For B = 1,000,
theoretical Mode-5 impact distributions are also plotted in the figure using best-fit
values of A. This value of B was chosen since it is currently used by RTI in making
launch-area risk studies for 45 SW/SE. Within the sectors from ±60° to ±180°, where
most population centers are located; data fits are reasonably good. As seen in the next
figure, the divergence for the no-breakup case can be greatly reduced by-selecting other
values for B and A.
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Figure 27. Titan Simulation Results with B = 1,000
9/10/96 66 RTI Not linked to a story yet.
Report, from the pursue collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 181 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.