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This final report, dated September 10, 1996, was prepared by the Research Triangle Institute for the Department of the Air Force's 45th and 30th Space Wing safety offices. Titled Modeling Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations, it shows how rare Mode-5 failures, in which a rocket veers well off its intended flight line, are modeled in the DAMP risk-analysis program. An appendix lists Atlas, Delta, Titan and Thor launch and failure histories through August 1996.
From the source:Release of 2026-05-08 Incident: 9/10/96, N/A. This report describes the Modeling of Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations, documenting historical launch failure modes and recommending corrective actions to address them using novel modelling techniques.
“Titan II”13 pages
6.3.1 Optimum Mode-5 Shaping Constants The percentage of Delta vehicles that break up during simulated random-attitude turns are plotted against failure time in Figure 23. The same breakup qa's used in the Atlas IIAS calculations were used here. It can be seen from the figure that over 50% of the vehicles break up, either immediately or eventually, if a turn begins between about 10 and 115 seconds. 100 90 80 - 70 -~0 C: 60-Q) ~ Q) 50 a.. a. :::I 40 ~ ffl Q) 30 cc ~ 20 10 0 __,..~......,.,.....·=····••: ··················••;••················••; ................... :····················; ................ , /1 \ , : i : Delta-GEM: ..... t/ .)..........'\ ..:\...... ·········~··················--f···················+····················f················· 1: i \ i \ i i . i 2 , , i \! \ q-alpha in deg-lb/tt •• ··;·r······-r··················t······,••••• ••••• •••••••...·········r·················· r-·················-r-·----t ,: i i\ \ --+ q-alptla = 5,000 !I L I\ \..... 1 ~-~~~ci::~~: : ~~:~-=-~--IIf ' l \ \ , i i i I "',~ i i i i'J ................................ ···············, ................ ' ......................................... ···-- ,; :~... ~ l l I,, : : ...~ ; ; ; f +! I I l~\j i , . rl ~l ,..............) .................)....... ; ............... i ................... i~ .............) ..__ i i . i i \~ i ·················!····················f····················f····················f···················1.... , ___: ---1 0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 Failure Time (sec) Figure 23. Delta-GEM Breakup Percentages 9/10/96 61 RTI
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Report, from the pursue collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 181 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.