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This final report, dated September 10, 1996, was prepared by the Research Triangle Institute for the Department of the Air Force's 45th and 30th Space Wing safety offices. Titled Modeling Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations, it shows how rare Mode-5 failures, in which a rocket veers well off its intended flight line, are modeled in the DAMP risk-analysis program. An appendix lists Atlas, Delta, Titan and Thor launch and failure histories through August 1996.
From the source:Release of 2026-05-08 Incident: 9/10/96, N/A. This report describes the Modeling of Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations, documenting historical launch failure modes and recommending corrective actions to address them using novel modelling techniques.
“Mission Control”17 pages
1- 100 10 E C: 0T""" .5 l 1 E C:-~Cl) a. 0.1 ~....- - .... - - - ... ......-.....- ....- - .....~....-...........-.....~- ......~....-.....- - .............~................~- .....~...........- - ..........-.....- ..........~ ·········••E=E.Al'r••".ASJ• =!= !=::::::::::: ..............-!- Theoretical................!...................!...................!................ _...: : : : : : 2 ...................;...........Br~akup..q~alphal.;;;;......5.,.opo...de9,::lb/ft2.. f··· . - t - Br~akup q-alpha! = 20,opo degrlb/ft ! • -i... NniBreaku·P. i i i i•••••..•••••••••1,.......... •• u+ uooo ■■•~•uooo 1'I oo O oo•HHHO• ················+···········'······+···················1•· ·········=:::!==····-···__.......... ·}·· ~ ················r·················r··················t··········.......1........-· : • : •••••••••• r· ................... :................... : ................... j.......................................;...................,t..............._....J... I I I I I I 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Impact Range (nm) Figure 22. Impact-Range Distributions Theoretical impact percentages for the same 10-mile range intervals were obtained by integrating the Mode-5 impact-density function [Eq. (3)] between the angle limits of zero and 1t, and between the range limits of ~ and ~ , and doubling the results. The percentages are plotted in Figure 22. As pointed out in more detail at the end of Appendix B, the percentage of impacts in any range interval is independent of the values of A and B. Figure 22 shows that the range impact distributions for theoretical Mode-5 impacts and random-attitude failures for breakup qa.'s between 5,000 and 20,000 deg-lb/ft2 are in excellent agreement out to 50 miles. Theoretical percentages and random-attitude percentages for qa. =5,000 deg-lb/ft2 (considered to be the most realistic value) are in good agreement out to 190 miles. Beyond that the differences appear fairly large, magnified as they are by the logarithmic scale, although the maximum absolute difference is only 0.4%. The steep rise in all curves at 350 miles is artificially created by lumping all impacts beyond 350 miles into one range interval instead of 10-mile intervals. 9/10/96 59 RTI
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Report, from the pursue collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 181 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.