Documents / Report
This final report, dated September 10, 1996, was prepared by the Research Triangle Institute for the Department of the Air Force's 45th and 30th Space Wing safety offices. Titled Modeling Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations, it shows how rare Mode-5 failures, in which a rocket veers well off its intended flight line, are modeled in the DAMP risk-analysis program. An appendix lists Atlas, Delta, Titan and Thor launch and failure histories through August 1996.
From the source:Release of 2026-05-08 Incident: 9/10/96, N/A. This report describes the Modeling of Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations, documenting historical launch failure modes and recommending corrective actions to address them using novel modelling techniques.
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15 .---~------.---~-----. 1o , ! !, !104 ! Atla~ IIAS , -! -5 All f\1ode P1 1 , - - -, 10-6 1 ! ! -----! 10 !................ r......................1".....................r.............................................T.................. . -E C: - 5 I I I I ...............!...-....................,.......................1.......................;.......................i.................. . ~ c CCI.... -~ • l i ~-------~--------r-------i -~--------, ! 1· i ------ i ! i,--t .,,,. ..... -r - - - ...,. - - - -+ - -- - -i- - ,~; ___' i -- :o!s.. _: - [_-1:.~:-:i=-==~-l~:-~~1.::::.i.~=! : ! : 0 . ____ I I I I-10 - ···- ' ........._ ....................................................,--·············.......... - : : 8 = 5,000,00Q A= 6.30 l -15 ....__....____i _ _.___ __.___....__.....___ __,! i -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Downrange Distance (nm) Figure 21. Atlas HAS All-Mode Ship-Hit Contours with A = 6.30 6.2.4 Range Distributions of Theoretical and Simulated Impacts Earlier discussions had to do with how well the angular part of the Mode-5 impact density function could be made to agree with angular data derived from simulated random-attitude turns. A similar procedure was used to- test agreement between the range part of the Mode-5 impact density function and the simulated data. For this purpose, beginning at 15 seconds random-attitude turns were made at 2-second -intervals out to 279 seconds, assuming no breakup and breakup qcx:'s of 5,000 and 20,000 deg-lb/ft2. At each time, 2,000 trajectories and impact points were computed, giving a total sample of 266,000 for each breakup condition. For each impact point, the range from the pad was computed, and the total number of impacts calculated in 10- mile range intervals out to 350 miles. Impacts beyond this range were placed in a single range category. The percentage of impacts in each range interval was then computed and plotted as shown in Figure 22. 9/10/96 58 RTI
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Report, from the pursue collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 181 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.