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This final report, dated September 10, 1996, was prepared by the Research Triangle Institute for the Department of the Air Force's 45th and 30th Space Wing safety offices. Titled Modeling Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations, it shows how rare Mode-5 failures, in which a rocket veers well off its intended flight line, are modeled in the DAMP risk-analysis program. An appendix lists Atlas, Delta, Titan and Thor launch and failure histories through August 1996.
From the source:Release of 2026-05-08 Incident: 9/10/96, N/A. This report describes the Modeling of Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations, documenting historical launch failure modes and recommending corrective actions to address them using novel modelling techniques.
the differences in calculated Mode-5 risks for the different values of B would surely have been less. Further understanding of why small differences in Ee exist can be gained by plotting values of the Mode-5 density function computed from Eq. (3) This has been done in Figure 15 for a range of three miles using values of A and B from Table 21 for qa. =5,000 deg-lb/ft2. Since Eq. (3) does not include a factor to account for the probability of a Mode-5 failure, the values plotted in the figure are conditional impact probabilities per square mile. For the sector from 120° to 180°, which is where most population centers are located, the density-function value for B =5,000,000 is largest and for B =1,000 is smallest. Results consistent with this are shown in Table 21, where the largest and smallest Ec's are for B =5,000,000 and B =1,000, respectively. ~ ~ 00 00 1001~1~100100 Theta (deg) Figure 15. Mode-5 Density-Function Values at Three Miles 6.2.3 Effects of Mode-5 Constants on Ship-Hit Contours In the preceding section, certain values were assigned to Band, by trial and error, best- fit values of A were found. For every breakup qa. and every B, it was possible to find a value of A that produced good agreement between theoretical and simulated impact data over 5° sectors from ±100° to ±180° (see Figure 10 through Figure 13). In some 9/10/96 51 RTI
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Report, from the pursue collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 181 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.