Department of the Air Force Report, 1996

U.S. Department of War · 1996-09-10 · 181 pages · text from the file's own layer

This final report, dated September 10, 1996, was prepared by the Research Triangle Institute for the Department of the Air Force's 45th and 30th Space Wing safety offices. Titled Modeling Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations, it shows how rare Mode-5 failures, in which a rocket veers well off its intended flight line, are modeled in the DAMP risk-analysis program. An appendix lists Atlas, Delta, Titan and Thor launch and failure histories through August 1996.

From the source:Release of 2026-05-08 Incident: 9/10/96, N/A. This report describes the Modeling of Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations, documenting historical launch failure modes and recommending corrective actions to address them using novel modelling techniques.

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“Mission Control”17 pages

p. 88 …Vehicle loses control at or shortly after liftoff, with all flight directions equally likely. Destruct is…
p. 106 …121 (8) Missiles/Space Vehicle Files, 45th Space Wing, Wing Safety, Mission Flight Control and Analysis…
p. 111 …Such behavior did not necessarily prevent the attainment of some, or even all, mission objectives. 50…
p. 131 …Due to excess speed, spacecraft passed 22,000 miles in front of moon, and primary mission…
p. 132 …Although Atlas performance was satisfactory, the mission was apparently a failure. No other data available. 134…
p. 133 …A flight-control malfunction occurred at about 15 seconds at the start of the pitch program…
p. 137 …Vehicle became unstable when B2 pitch control was lost at 121 seconds. Loss of pitch control…
p. 138 …The missile then lost attitude control, executing a hard yaw rate tum throughout and beyond the…
p. 139 …of the rate gyro or an electrical failure in the pitch channel of the flight control…
p. 140 caused yaw and roll rates that the flight control system could not correct. As a result…
p. 151 …Attitude control lost during second stage coast period. Third stage spun up, but did not fire…
p. 153 …One solid-rocket motor carried to MECO, but mission was still a complete success. 102. SMS…
p. 169 …Missile tumbled out of control at 130 seconds, then broke up. 104. IHA (65-210), 1…
p. 170 …Nominal mission through transtage second burn shutdown. Attitude control system engine failed to shutdown following vernier…
p. 171 …However, satellite propulsion system malfunctioned putting satellite in uncontrollable position with no possibility of restoring mission…
p. 172 …control until propellant depletion. Trajectory inaccuracies were compensated for during Stage-2 burn, and the mission…
p. 180 …Missiles/Space Vehicle Files, 45th Space Wing, Wing Safety, Mission Flight Control and Analysis (SEO), 1957…

Table 19. Sample Impact Distribution for Atlas HAS with No Breakup
Failure Time (sec)
35 55 75 95 115 135 155 175 195 215 235 255
300 411 487 608 835 1107 1843 3333 4092 5386 7906 10000
314 388 465 575 808 1082 1762 3065 3827 4206 2094 0
316 427 495 627 744 975 1652 2820 2081 408 0 0
329 354 464 558 730 945 1445 782 0 0 0 0
319 378 421 566 670 845 1292 0 0 0 0 0
316 349 406 525 641 776 1203 -0 0 0 0 0
339 337 415 452 505 617 800 0 0 0 0 0
336 381 368 405 506 550 3 0 0 0 0 0
293 388 374 409 454 520 0 0 0 0 0 0
298 310 397 366 412 441 0 0 0 0 0 0
282 331 346 323 352 378 0 0 0 0 0 0
308 282 303 314 292 331 0 0 0 0 0 0
308 289 306 293 299 260 0 0 0 0 0 0
262 279 300 294 286 256 0 0 0 0 0 0
275 326 281 264 243 205 0 0 0 0 0 0
261 272 271 238 232 170 0 0 0 0 0 0
266 249 272 234 194 111 0 0 0 0 0 0
274 241 242 219 191 96 0 0 0 0 0 0
285 246 230 226 171 70 0 0 0 0 0 0
283 280 235 180 136 55 0 0 0 0 0 0
283 268 215 190 126 49 0 0 0 0 0 0
254 246 211 200 108 30 0 0 0 0 0 0
267 237 204 168 114 27 0 0 0 0 0 0
255 230 178 162 120 18 0 0 0 0 0 0
263 251 211 167 98 17 0 0 0 0 0 0
255 225 189 155 62 11 0 0 0 0 0 0
251 227 195 126 86 8 0 0 0 0 0 0
259 227 176 128 77 8 0 0 0 0 0 0
244 184 186 169 63 5 0 0 0 0 0 0
243 187 180 118 59 8 0 0 0 0 0 0
225 178 166 128 72 8 0 0 0 0 0 0
259 199 151 113 68 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
213 220 177 127 59 6 0 0 0 0 0 0
242 203 172 115 68 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
256 195 171 127 60 6 0 0 0 0 0 0
267 205 140 131 59 5 0 0 0 0 0 0
10000 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000
Ane. 15
0 255
5 279
10 261
15 298
27420
25 287
30 257
35 299
27540 29945 24250 28055
60 272
65 288
70 250
75 283
80 273
85 287
90 235
30395
100 292
105 279
110 283
115 261
120 311
125 276
130 266
135 283
140 286
145 305
150 251
155 293
160 253
165 254
170 298
175 312
Total 10000
275
10000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10000
All %
87746 32.50
38474 14.25
21265 7.88
12195 4.52
8875 3.29
8189 3.03
6893 2.55
5883 2.18
5593 2.07
5285 1.96
1.684535
4005 1.48
3827 1.42
3666 1.36
1.293483
3321 1.23
3022 1.12
2888 1.07
2778 1.03
2815 1.04
2620 0.97
2571 0.95
2448 0.91
0.872346
2321 0.86
2239 0.83
2246 0.83
2221 0.82
2138 0.79
2102 0.78
1895 0.70
2103 0.78
1952 0.72
2008 0.74
2034 0.75
2018 0.75
270000 100.00
9/10/96 41 RTI

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Report, from the pursue collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 181 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.