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This final report, dated September 10, 1996, was prepared by the Research Triangle Institute for the Department of the Air Force's 45th and 30th Space Wing safety offices. Titled Modeling Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations, it shows how rare Mode-5 failures, in which a rocket veers well off its intended flight line, are modeled in the DAMP risk-analysis program. An appendix lists Atlas, Delta, Titan and Thor launch and failure histories through August 1996.
From the source:Release of 2026-05-08 Incident: 9/10/96, N/A. This report describes the Modeling of Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations, documenting historical launch failure modes and recommending corrective actions to address them using novel modelling techniques.
Table 1. Effects of Mode-5 Shaping Constant A on Atlas IIA Risks B = 1,000 Percent of Mode-5 IPs Uprange 28.6 Casualty Expectancv (x 10°') inside ILLs Modes Total for all Modes 246 259.9 Constant A 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 20.7 14.6 10.0 136 149.4 58.9 72.7 30.5 44.3 The results in·the third column are directly proportional to the probability that a Mode- 5 failure occurs. For the Atlas IIA analysis, a value of 1/200 = 0.005 was assumed. Case 2: Risk Contours for Atlas IIAS Definitions of Flight Hazard Area and Flight Caution Area may be based on the risk contours for inner-ear injury. Constant A can have a significant effect on the location of the 10-6 contour, as illustrated in Figure 2 and Figure 3 for the Atlas IIAS. For these figures, the Mode-5 absolute probability of occurrence was 0.005, constant A was 3.0 and 3.5, and constant B was 1000. 9/10/96 10 RTI
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Report, from the pursue collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 181 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.