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This final report, dated September 10, 1996, was prepared by the Research Triangle Institute for the Department of the Air Force's 45th and 30th Space Wing safety offices. Titled Modeling Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations, it shows how rare Mode-5 failures, in which a rocket veers well off its intended flight line, are modeled in the DAMP risk-analysis program. An appendix lists Atlas, Delta, Titan and Thor launch and failure histories through August 1996.
From the source:Release of 2026-05-08 Incident: 9/10/96, N/A. This report describes the Modeling of Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations, documenting historical launch failure modes and recommending corrective actions to address them using novel modelling techniques.
“Mission Control”17 pages
0.1.4 Representative Configurations The last column in the tables in· Appendix D indicates whether the vehicle configuration is considered sufficiently similar to- current and future vehicles for the test result to be included in the representative data sample used to· predict absolute reliability. A "1" in the column indicates that the test result is included, while a "(Y' indicates that it is excluded. There are likely to be differences of opinion about which past configurations are representative and which are not. In determining which to include, RTI has relied entirely on the Booz•Allen & Hamilton report'41 referred to earlier. When faced with the same problem, Booz•Allen established the following criteria for deciding whether past configurations were sufficiently similar to current configurations: (1) Genealogy: Is the current system a direct or indirect derivative of the historical configuration? (2) Operations: Is the current system operated in the same manner as the historical configurations (e.g., ICBM versus space-launch vehicle)? (3) Composition: Does the current system use the same types of elements (i.e., SRMs, upper stage, etc.)? Based on these criteria and other factors, Booz•Allen decided to use test results from flights of the following vehicle configurations to predict future success rates: Atlas: SLV-3 and later configurations to include SLV-3A, SLV-3C, SLV-3D, G, H, I, II, IIA, ITAS. (Excluded: Atlas A, B, C, LV-3A, 3B, 3C, D, E, F) Delta: 291X and later configurations to include 391X, 392X, 492X, 592X, 692X, 792X. Titan: Titan IIIC and later configurations to include IIIB, IIID, IIIE, 34B, 34D, III/CT, IV, II-SLV. 9/10/96 100
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Report, from the pursue collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 181 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.