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This final report, dated September 10, 1996, was prepared by the Research Triangle Institute for the Department of the Air Force's 45th and 30th Space Wing safety offices. Titled Modeling Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations, it shows how rare Mode-5 failures, in which a rocket veers well off its intended flight line, are modeled in the DAMP risk-analysis program. An appendix lists Atlas, Delta, Titan and Thor launch and failure histories through August 1996.
From the source:Release of 2026-05-08 Incident: 9/10/96, N/A. This report describes the Modeling of Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations, documenting historical launch failure modes and recommending corrective actions to address them using novel modelling techniques.
“Titan II”13 pages
F = 0.8, only the most recent 25 or so data points contribute to the final result, since all older data points are essentially weighted out of the solution. 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 ...-i:!: 0.6 u.. -.c- 0.5 ........ ............ i ..........................J ...........................+········-- F = ~ (equally weighted) ! F=0.J9 I ! I--.: ···········;··························· ....--········-----···-- ···· -•-1- +-=0.9! 5 ! C) ·a5 i I~ ' ............................ ~............................ ca 0.4 Cl 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 ca i -- 0.99 ..... ...........................:....... . ..... 1 /.-····---; -----i·········· -1.................. +o.s .......... , I 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Data Index (older->) Figure 35. Exponential Weights for Fading-Memory Filters For the exponentially-weighted fading-memory filter, it can be shown that the recursive filter factor used in Eq. (12) is 1-F a=-- (20) n 1-Fn Since OS F S 1, an in Eq. (20) does not approach zero as n approaches infinity (as the other two filters do), but instead approaches the value (1 - F). If F = 0, then an= 1 for all n, the filter has no memory at all, and the filtered value always equals the last measurement. In the limit as F approaches one, L'Hospital' s rule can be applied to 9/10/96 93 RTI
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Report, from the pursue collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 181 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.