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This final report, dated September 10, 1996, was prepared by the Research Triangle Institute for the Department of the Air Force's 45th and 30th Space Wing safety offices. Titled Modeling Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations, it shows how rare Mode-5 failures, in which a rocket veers well off its intended flight line, are modeled in the DAMP risk-analysis program. An appendix lists Atlas, Delta, Titan and Thor launch and failure histories through August 1996.
From the source:Release of 2026-05-08 Incident: 9/10/96, N/A. This report describes the Modeling of Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations, documenting historical launch failure modes and recommending corrective actions to address them using novel modelling techniques.
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For the recursive form of this filter, where each datum is weighted by its position in the chronological sequence, the recursive filter factor for the nth point is given by n 2n 2 a=-=---=-- (16) n f i n·(n+l) n+l i=l Using Eq. (12), (17) The "memory'' (i.e., importance) of older data in this filter fades at a rate dictated by the filter. In this case, the 50th value is 50 times more important than the first, and the 100th value is twice as important as the 50th and 100 times more important than the first. The exponentially-weighted filter provides the analyst with more flexibility. This filter uses F as a weighting factor, where the filter-control constant F is a value chosen between zero and one, and i is the "age-count" of the ith data point. For this filter, i = 0 now designates the current -or latest data point, i =1 designates the immediately preceding or next-to-last data point, etc., so the data points are indexed in reverse chronological order starting with zero. The weighted least-squares solution is (18) Using F =0.9 and the same example as before, X3 = Fox3 + F1x2 + F2x1 po +Fl +F2 (.9)0 (7) +(.9)1(5) +(.9)2(6) (19)= 0 1 2 (.9) +(.9) +(.9) = 7 + 4.5 + 4.86 =- 16.36 = 6.04 2.71 2.71 The weighting of each data point for sample sizes up to 300 is sqown in Figure 35 for values of F from 0.8 to 1.0. For F = 1, all points in the sample are weighted equally. For 9/10/96 92 RTI
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Report, from the pursue collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 181 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.