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This final report, dated September 10, 1996, was prepared by the Research Triangle Institute for the Department of the Air Force's 45th and 30th Space Wing safety offices. Titled Modeling Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations, it shows how rare Mode-5 failures, in which a rocket veers well off its intended flight line, are modeled in the DAMP risk-analysis program. An appendix lists Atlas, Delta, Titan and Thor launch and failure histories through August 1996.
From the source:Release of 2026-05-08 Incident: 9/10/96, N/A. This report describes the Modeling of Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations, documenting historical launch failure modes and recommending corrective actions to address them using novel modelling techniques.
“Headquarters”3 pages
Xn = Xn-1 (1-an) + xn (an) (12) Xn = Xn-1 + an (xn -Xn-1) For the equally-weighted case, the recursive filter factor an= 1/n. Using the same example, with X0 = 0, (13) In general terms, this recursive formulation of the least squares solution is called an expanding-memory filter, as opposed to a sliding-window or fixed-length filter. In an expanding-memory filter, the solution is always based on the entire data set. In the equally-weighted case, all data points have an equal influence on the solution, regardless of their locations in the sequence. It can be seen that in the limit as n becomes very large, an approaches zero. That is, each data point in the sequence is accorded a decreased weight due to the increased number of points being fit. If the data being fit should actually describe a constant, this is exactly what is desired. Normally, however, the function that the data should fit is unknown, and a constant function is used merely as an approximation to smooth or edit the data. What is desired is a recursive least squares fit that assigns a decreasing weight to data of increasing age, so the fit de-weights data points used in earlier recursions. In a fading-memory filter, the weighting factor decreases as time recedes into the past, so that the importance of any given datum will decrease as the age of the datum increases. An example of such a filter is one in which each datum is weighted by its count or index number in the sequence: n I,i xi Xn = i=ln L,i (14) i=l Using the same numerical example as before, where x1 =6, x2 = 5, and x3 =7, - 1-6+2•5+3•7 37 X = ----- = - = 6.17 (15) 1+2+3 6 9/10/96 91 RTI
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Report, from the pursue collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 181 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.